宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026年3月23日）-20260323

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is supported by short - term spot tightness and oil mill price - holding, but is constrained by weak real - world demand and long - term supply pressure, and will maintain a weak - side shock in the short term [5][6] - The palm oil market will have a wide - range shock in the short term, with a tug - of - war between international cost support and weak domestic fundamentals [7] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - Day - to - day view: Weak - side shock [5] - Medium - term view: Shock [5] - Reference view: Weak - side shock [5] - Core logic: The core driver of soybean meal lies in the game between short - term supply tightness and long - term weak demand. Supply is limited by delayed Brazilian soybean arrivals and domestic oil mill maintenance, while demand is weak due to low pig prices and cautious purchasing by feed enterprises. Import costs and geopolitical factors add volatility, but the medium - term global soybean supply - demand pattern is loose [5] Palm Oil (P) - Day - to - day view: Weak - side shock [7] - Medium - term view: Shock [7] - Reference view: Weak - side shock [7] - Core logic: The palm oil market shows a shock pattern of a strong expectation - weak reality game. Bullish factors include high - running crude oil due to geopolitical conflicts, expected limited production increase in Malaysia in March, and potential benefits from Indonesia's biofuel policy. Bearish factors are high domestic inventory, cost pressure on related soybean oil, and weak actual demand [7]