五矿期货早报|有色金属：有色金属日报-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Middle - East situation continues to suppress market sentiment. Inflation and economic weakness risks are weighing on the market. However, for copper, the supply of raw materials is tight, and future inventory digestion may support copper prices. For aluminum, overseas supply remains tight, and domestic inventory reduction may support prices. For lead, the price has multi - factor contradictions and may further decline. For zinc, it is in a downward trend. For tin, it is expected to run weakly. For nickel, it may follow the downward trend in the short - term but has bottom support in the medium - term. For lithium carbonate, the price has some support. For alumina, a wait - and - see strategy is recommended. For stainless steel, it will maintain high - level volatility. For cast aluminum alloy, the price has some support [2][4][7][9][11][13][16][19][22][25] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Market Information: On Friday, LME copper 3M contract closed down 3.09% to $11,834/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 93,210 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 6,925 to 342,350 tons, and SHFE weekly inventory decreased by 22,000 to 411,000 tons. The spot in East China had a slightly wider discount, and the import was profitable. The refined - scrap copper price difference was inverted [1] - Strategy Viewpoint: The Middle - East situation has not cooled down, and inflation and economic weakness continue to suppress the market. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the consumption sentiment is not very positive but improving. Future inventory digestion will support copper prices. Short - term copper prices may continue to find the bottom. The reference range for SHFE copper main contract is 92,000 - 94,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $11,500 - $12,000/ton [2] Aluminum - Market Information: On Friday, LME aluminum 3M contract closed down 1.54% to $3,192/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 23,530 yuan/ton. SHFE weighted contract positions decreased by 10,000 to 586,000 tons, and futures warehouse receipts increased by 10,000 to 404,000 tons. Aluminum ingot and bar inventories decreased, and the processing fee of aluminum bars increased. The spot discount in East China narrowed. LME inventory decreased by 3,000 to 430,000 tons [3] - Strategy Viewpoint: The escalation of the Middle - East situation has affected the market sentiment. The supply concern has eased, but overseas supply remains tight, and domestic inventory reduction may support prices. If the war does not cool down, aluminum prices may fluctuate weakly. The reference range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 23,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $3,120 - $3,250/ton [4] Lead - Market Information: On Friday, SHFE lead index closed down 0.74% to 16,293 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell by $11 to $1,881/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,275 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was - 25 yuan/ton. SHFE lead inventory was 58,200 tons, and LME lead inventory was 284,300 tons. The social inventory decreased by 7,500 tons to 72,600 tons [6] - Strategy Viewpoint: The visible inventory of lead concentrates has declined, and the import TC has increased. The production of primary and secondary smelters has improved, and the factory and social inventories have decreased. The lead price is at the lower edge of the long - term range, and the downstream may buy for hedging. However, the high SHFE - LME ratio has led to less exports and more imports. The high oil price has put pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector, and the lead price may further decline [7] Zinc - Market Information: On Friday, SHFE zinc index closed up 1.02% to 22,938 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell by $3.5 to $3,086.5/ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 22,910 yuan/ton. SHFE zinc inventory was 102,500 tons, and LME zinc inventory was 117,900 tons. The social inventory decreased by 7,200 tons to 229,000 tons. The downstream actively replenished inventory after the price decline [8] - Strategy Viewpoint: The visible inventory of zinc concentrates has increased, and the import TC has continued to decline. The zinc price decline has led to a rapid decline in mining and smelting profits. The downstream has replenished inventory, but the overall inventory is still high. The high oil price and the Fed's policy expectations have put pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector, and the zinc price is in a downward trend. Attention should be paid to downstream replenishment, Fed policy, and geopolitical conflicts [9] Tin - Market Information: On March 20, SHFE tin main contract closed at 342,480 yuan/ton, down 0.94%. SHFE inventory decreased by 789 to 9,486 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 35 to 8,920 tons. The smelter operating rates in Yunnan and Jiangxi have recovered, but the demand improvement is limited. The social inventory decreased by 2,770 tons to 11,035 tons [10] - Strategy Viewpoint: The tin supply is still constrained by raw material shortages, and the short - term supply increase is limited. The demand has a weak improvement, and the downstream's low - price replenishment provides short - term support. Considering geopolitical factors and the decline of the US interest - rate cut expectation, the tin price is expected to run weakly. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 330,000 - 420,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $41,000 - $50,000/ton [11] Nickel - Market Information: On March 20, SHFE nickel main contract closed at 133,160 yuan/ton, down 1.22%. The spot premiums of different brands were stable or decreased. The cost of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron decreased slightly [12] - Strategy Viewpoint: In the short - term, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the Fed's hawkish stance have put pressure on risk assets, and the nickel price may follow the downward trend. In the medium - term, the global nickel supply - demand situation is improving, and the nickel price has strong bottom support. It is not recommended to short. The reference range for SHFE nickel is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $16,000 - $20,000/ton. It is recommended to operate within the range [13] Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 144,916 yuan, up 0.29%. The battery - grade lithium carbonate price was 141,500 - 149,200 yuan, and the industrial - grade was 138,500 - 146,000 yuan. The LC2605 contract closed at 143,860 yuan, up 0.88% [15] - Strategy Viewpoint: The Iran situation has led to concerns about energy shocks and the suppression of metal prices. The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong, and the production has increased. The inventory reduction has slowed down, but the consumption is still high. The lithium price has some support from downstream buying. Attention should be paid to the changes in positions, industry events, and spot premiums. The reference range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 132,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton [16] Alumina - Market Information: On March 20, the alumina index closed down 0.77% to 3,061 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price increased by 10 to 2,715 yuan/ton, with a discount of 326 yuan/ton to the main contract. The overseas FOB price was stable at $302/ton, and the import profit was 115 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 8,700 to 399,100 tons. The CIF price of bauxite in Guinea increased by $1 to $65/ton [18] - Strategy Viewpoint: The Guinea government may tighten bauxite exports, and the ore price is expected to rise. The short - term supply of alumina has tightened due to maintenance, but the long - term oversupply pattern remains. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to domestic supply policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the US - Iran conflict [19] Stainless Steel - Market Information: On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,065 yuan/ton, up 1.52%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi increased. The raw material prices were mostly stable. The futures inventory decreased by 10,342 to 40,898 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 1.24% to 1,072,600 tons [21] - Strategy Viewpoint: The Middle - East situation and the Fed's hawkish stance have put pressure on the market. The stainless - steel market supply is loose, the inventory reduction is slow, and the downstream demand is weak. The market is in a game between weak macro and demand and strong cost support. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level. The reference range for the main contract is 13,700 - 14,410 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the progress of Indonesia's RKAB application review [22] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: On Friday, the cast aluminum alloy main contract AD2604 closed down 0.83% to 22,810 yuan/ton. The weighted contract positions and trading volume decreased, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 2,600 to 47,700 tons. The domestic mainstream ADC12 price decreased, and the import price decreased by 300 yuan/ton. The upstream inventory decreased [24] - Strategy Viewpoint: The cost of cast aluminum alloy has decreased, but the demand is expected to improve with the resumption of production. The supply - side disturbances and raw material shortages provide some support for the price [25]