Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - PX, PTA, and MEG are in a short - term volatile market, and their medium - term trends are still strong [2]. - For PX, the medium - term trend is strong, and the operation should focus on buying on dips. For PTA, don't chase high prices, the medium - term trend is strong, and it's recommended to buy on dips. For MEG, the unilateral trend is strong, and a positive spread strategy for the 5 - 9 month contract is suggested [6][7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - PX: The closing price of the PX main contract was 9682, down 232 or 2.34% from the previous day. The PX5 - 9 spread was 438, up 68 from the previous day [4]. - PTA: The closing price of the PTA main contract was 6650, down 184 or 2.69% from the previous day. The PTA5 - 9 spread was 198, up 30 from the previous day [4]. - MEG: The closing price of the MEG main contract was 5353, up 133 or 2.55% from the previous day. The MEG5 - 9 spread was 194, up 81 from the previous day [4]. - PF: The closing price of the PF main contract was 8248, down 110 or 1.32% from the previous day. The PF3 - 4 spread was - 166, up 22 from the previous day [4]. - SC: The closing price of the SC main contract was 773.6, down 41.3 or 5.07% from the previous day. The SC2 - 3 spread was 2.5, up 5.9 from the previous day [4]. Spot Market - PX: The spot price of PX CFR China was 1206.67 dollars/ton, down 57 dollars/ton from the previous day. The PX - naphtha spread was 103.17 dollars/ton, down 107.25 dollars/ton from the previous day [4]. - PTA: The spot price of PTA in East China was 6550 yuan/ton, down 315 yuan/ton from the previous day. The PTA processing fee was 284.3 yuan/ton, down 14.13 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - MEG: The spot price of MEG was 5080 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - Naphtha: The price of naphtha MOPJ was 1140.5 dollars/ton, down 20 dollars/ton from the previous day. The MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread was - 4.34 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - Brent: The price of Dated Brent was 116.94 dollars/barrel, down 0.5 dollars/barrel from the previous day [4]. Fundamental Data - MEG: A 360,000 - ton/year MEG plant in the US has restarted, and a 380,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Malaysia has stopped for maintenance for about 2 months [5]. - Polyester: A direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factory in Jiangsu reduced production by 60 tons/day, and a 250,000 - ton polyester plant in Ningbo stopped production at the beginning of this week [5]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX, PTA, and MEG is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [5][6][8]. Operation Suggestions - PX: The medium - term trend is strong, and the operation should focus on buying on dips. The internal - external price difference arbitrage window is partially open. The 04 contract's domestic price is 50 yuan/ton higher than the foreign price, and the 05 contract's domestic price is 300 yuan/ton higher. The PXN has dropped to 81 dollars, and PX - MX in South Korea has dropped to 90 dollars. The domestic PX plant operating rate is 84.6% (+0.1%), and the Asian operating rate is 74.8% (-2.1%) [6]. - PTA: Don't chase high prices. The medium - term trend is strong, and it's recommended to buy on dips. The PTA load has dropped to 78.2% (-0.9%). The polyester operating rate is 87.6% (+0.4%). The polyester profit is okay, but the sales are weak. It's recommended to do a positive spread for the month - to - month contract and hold a long PX and short PTA position [7]. - MEG: The import has shrunk significantly, and the port inventory has decreased. The unilateral trend is strong. The domestic ethylene glycol operating rate has dropped from 80% to 66%. The import volume will decline rapidly this week. The polyester operating rate is 87.6% (+0.4%). The profit of different production processes varies. It's recommended to operate in the range of 4500 - 6000 and do a positive spread for the 5 - 9 month contract [8].
对二甲苯:短期震荡市,中期仍偏强;PTA:短期震荡市,中期仍偏强;MEG:供应偏紧,中期趋势偏强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2026-03-23 02:11