宁证期货今日早评-20260323

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - The report provides short - term evaluations and trend predictions for multiple commodities, including coal, methanol, iron ore, etc., based on their current market data and geopolitical situations [1][2][4] Summary by Commodity Coal - For coking coal, downstream inventory is high and the replenishment is limited. With high Mongolian coal imports, there is pressure on the fundamentals, and the spot price has limited room to rise. The futures price is affected by geopolitical conflicts and delivery pressure, expected to be in a wide - range shock [1] Methanol - Domestic methanol production is at a high level, and downstream demand has a phased increase. The port inventory continues to decline, and the port imports have dropped significantly. The market is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [2] Iron Ore - Although the overall supply is still relatively loose, the shipping and arrival rhythm is affected, and some spot varieties have limited liquidity. The futures and spot prices are firm. The iron water production has room to recover, and the inventory is difficult to decline significantly without disturbances. The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term [4] Rebar - The overall rebar production has returned to the same level as last year. The infrastructure investment growth rate at the beginning of the year is okay, and the downstream resumption is good. It is currently in the transition period between the off - season and peak season, and the inventory has started to decline. The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term [5] Pig - The short - term supply situation is difficult to improve, and the price will be adjusted within a narrow range. The near - month futures contracts are accelerating downward, and the far - month contracts are volatile, waiting for the cycle to reverse [6] Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil exports in March have increased significantly. The domestic inventory pressure is large, and the sales are not good. The price is expected to be high - level volatile in the short - term [7] Soybean Meal - The domestic oil mill's soybean meal inventory has increased, and some downstream feed enterprises with high inventory are resistant to high - priced spot. The price is expected to be high - level volatile and weak in the short - term [8] Five - year Treasury Bond - After the Two Sessions, the market is stable for the moment. The bond market fluctuates inversely with the stock market, and it is waiting for the guidance of the Politburo meeting [9] Copper - The copper price is mainly affected by macro factors. The social inventory is decreasing, but the absolute inventory is still high. The price is expected to be under pressure in the short - term [10] Gold - The war continues, and the market's expectation of the Fed's reverse interest rate hike has weakened. The gold price has fallen to the lower edge of the medium - term shock range. It is expected to be high - level volatile in the medium - term [10] Silver - The probability of interest rate hikes or cuts is equally weighted. The silver price is near the lower edge of the medium - term shock range, and it is expected to be high - level volatile in the medium - term [11] Crude Oil - The passage of the Strait of Hormuz is at a low level. The market should maintain a long - biased trading idea in the medium - term [11] Plastic - The supply is sufficient, the production enterprise inventory is decreasing, the downstream demand is increasing, and the cost of crude oil is high. The price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [12] Asphalt - The asphalt price is affected by cost support and tight raw materials. The core influencing factor is geopolitics, and it should be operated with a long - biased idea [13] Aluminum - The February production decline conforms to the seasonal pattern. Affected by the Fed's hawkish attitude and geopolitical conflicts, the market is under pressure. The domestic inventory is high, and the price is expected to continue to decline and fluctuate [14] Soda Ash - The soda ash market is stable and volatile. The enterprise inventory is high, the supply is high, and the demand is average. The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term [15] Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market is highly sensitive to geopolitical situations. The market should maintain a long - biased idea [16] Lead - The lead export has weakened, the supply and demand are in a stalemate, and the price is expected to be range - bound in the short - term [16]