格林大华期货早盘提示：贵金属-20260323

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for precious metals in the non - ferrous and precious metals sector is "volatile and bearish" [1] 2. Report Core View - The war between the US, Israel, and Iran continued last week, causing international crude oil prices to remain high and increasing global inflation expectations. The Fed and other central banks maintained interest rates, with the Fed and ECB raising inflation expectations. The market predicts a more than 20% probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points by June. The dollar index fell slightly, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose, and the US stock and bond markets declined on Friday. Precious metals prices dropped, and after a short - term rapid decline, the market is brewing a rebound. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the Iranian situation [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures fell 2.47% to $4492.00 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 4.78% to $67.81 per ounce. Shanghai gold night trading closed down 1.22% at 1016.12 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver closed down 1.77% at 17139 yuan per kilogram [1] 3.2 Important Information - On March 20, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, decreased by 5.144 tons to 1056.991 tons, while the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, increased by 61.97 tons to 15248.91 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 12.4%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 87.6%. By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate hike is 21.9%, the probability of a 50 - basis - point rate hike is 1.6%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 76.5% [1] - Trump demanded that Iran open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, or he would destroy the power plants. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps strongly responded. Many countries are trying to mediate to end the war, and Iran has put forward six conditions for a cease - fire [1] - The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated on the 22nd that the Strait of Hormuz is not blocked, and under certain conditions, ships can still sail. Iran will handle ships from the US, Israel, and other aggressive countries in accordance with the law [1] 3.3 Market Logic - The war between the US, Israel, and Iran led to high international crude oil prices and increased inflation expectations. The US PPI in February rose 3.4% year - on - year, higher than expected, and the number of initial jobless claims was lower than expected. Central banks maintained interest rates and raised inflation expectations. The dollar index fell, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose, and the US stock and bond markets declined on Friday. Precious metals prices dropped, and the market is brewing a rebound [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The market's short - term volatility has increased, and investors should control their positions and prevent risks [2]