申万宏源证券：晨会报告-20260323

Group 1: EDA Industry Insights - The report highlights the rapid importance of multi-physical simulation in the EDA industry, indicating a trend towards the integration of EDA and CAE tools [12][10] - The semiconductor industry is entering a system-level era where multi-physical simulation becomes a critical demand, driven by the need for advanced packaging to extend Moore's Law [12][10] - The growth rate of multi-physical simulation-related EDA is significantly higher than the overall industry, with a projected CAGR of 25.8% for the CAE sub-sector over the next five years [12][10] Group 2: Market Trends and Strategies - The report discusses the current market pressure due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the US-Iran conflict, which has led to a decline in risk appetite and a contraction in industry ETF sizes [11][10] - It emphasizes the need for a stable policy environment to navigate the current market challenges, suggesting that the worst pressure phase may have been reached [11][10] - The report anticipates a two-phase market recovery, with potential for sector rotation and new leading themes emerging, particularly in energy and technology sectors [15][10] Group 3: Alibaba's Performance and Strategy - Alibaba's e-commerce segment shows signs of recovery, with a revenue increase of 6% year-on-year in Q3 FY26, driven by growth in instant retail [22][23] - The cloud segment is accelerating, with a 36% year-on-year revenue growth, indicating a clear path for AI commercialization and integration across its services [22][23] - The company aims to achieve a transaction scale exceeding 1 trillion yuan in its instant retail segment by FY28, with a focus on achieving positive cash flow [22][23] Group 4: Commodity and Metal Industry Outlook - The report outlines a positive outlook for the precious metals sector, driven by ongoing global central bank purchases and a favorable investment environment amid a potential recession [25][10] - Basic metals are expected to maintain a favorable trend, with demand supported by the growth of AI and renewable energy sectors [25][10] - Strategic minor metals are experiencing a revaluation, with significant price increases anticipated due to supply constraints and rising demand from energy storage applications [25][10]