原木:边际走强,价格反弹
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2026-03-23 02:19
- Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The demand for logs has rebounded, leading to a rapid increase in outbound shipments. With supply remaining at a normal level, port inventories are being depleted. Coupled with rising shipping costs, log prices have rebounded [3]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Fundamentals Tracking Futures Market - The closing prices of the 2605, 2607, and 2609 contracts all showed upward trends, with daily increases of 1.1%, 0.8%, and 0.2% respectively, and weekly increases of 1.9%, 2%, and 1% respectively [1]. - The trading volumes of the 2605, 2607, and 2609 contracts had significant daily increases of 70.6%, 66.7%, and 52.8% respectively, but the weekly changes were different, with the 2605 contract up 3%, the 2607 contract down 20%, and the 2609 contract down 75% [1]. - The open interests of the 2605, 2607, and 2609 contracts all increased, with daily increases of 12.7%, 12.8%, and 0.1% respectively, and weekly increases of 34%, 24%, and 1% respectively [1]. Spread - The spreads between different contracts showed significant changes. For example, the spread between the 2605 - 2607 contract decreased by 125.0% daily and 150% weekly [1]. Spot Market - Most log and wood square spot prices remained stable, with only a few showing slight changes. For example, the price of 4 - meter pulp (KIS) in Shandong and Jiangsu markets increased by 1.6% and 3.1% weekly respectively [1]. Macro and Industry News - The demand for logs has rebounded, leading to a rapid increase in outbound shipments. With supply remaining at a normal level, port inventories are being depleted. Coupled with rising shipping costs, log prices have rebounded [3]. - The 2026 government work report focuses on stabilizing expectations, adjusting the structure, preventing risks, and promoting reforms. The GDP growth target has been adjusted from "around 5%" to "4.5% - 5.0%", and the scale of policy - based financial instruments has been increased [3]. - Five departments in Shanghai jointly issued a notice on further optimizing and adjusting real estate policies, which came into effect on February 26, 2026 [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of logs is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [4].