金融期货早班车-20260323

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock index futures, in the medium to long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips; for short - term, the trend is unclear, so it is recommended to wait and see [1] - For treasury bond futures, in the short - term, the trend is unclear, so it is recommended to wait and see; in the medium to long - term, with the upward risk preference and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge at high prices for T and TL [2] Group 3: Summary of Stock Index Futures Market Performance - On March 20, most of the four major A - share stock indexes pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.24% to close at 3957.05 points; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25% to close at 13866.2 points; the ChiNext Index rose 1.3% to close at 3352.1 points; the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 1.55% to close at 1318.31 points. The market turnover was 23,028 billion yuan, an increase of 1,756 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - In terms of industry sectors, power equipment (+1.55%), communication (+1.48%), and coal (+0.1%) performed well; comprehensive (-5.52%), computer (-3.83%), and national defense and military industry (-3%) performed averagely [1] - From the perspective of market strength, IF>IH>IC>IM. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 661/43/4,784 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of - 118, - 281, - 27, and 426 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +225, +31, - 157, and - 99 billion yuan respectively [1] Basis and Basis Annualized Yield - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 55.63, 63.44, 27.02, and 2.46 points respectively, and the basis annualized yields were - 8.93%, - 10.22%, - 7.39%, and - 1.07% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 50%, 21%, 15%, and 39% respectively [1] Transaction Strategy - In the medium to long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [1] Group 4: Summary of Treasury Bond Futures Market Performance - On March 20, treasury bond futures showed a weak trend. Among the active contracts, TS fell 0.01%, TF fell 0.06%, T fell 0.09%, and TL fell 0.42% [1] Cash Bond - The current active contract is the 2606 contract. For the 2 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250024.IB, the yield changed by - 0.5bps, the corresponding net basis is 0.033, and the IRR is 1.28%; for the 5 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250014.IB, the yield changed by +0bps, the corresponding net basis is 0.024, and the IRR is 1.32%; for the 10 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250025.IB, the yield changed by +0.1bps, the corresponding net basis is 0.014, and the IRR is 1.36%; for the 30 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 210014.IB, the yield changed by +0.25bps, the corresponding net basis is 0.221, and the IRR is 0.68% [1] Capital Situation - In terms of open - market operations, the central bank injected 205 billion yuan and withdrew 375 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 170 billion yuan [1] Transaction Strategy - In the short - term, the trend is unclear, so it is recommended to wait and see; in the medium to long - term, with the upward risk preference and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge at high prices for T and TL [2] Group 5: Summary of Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the prosperity of various sectors has declined [8]