国新国证期货早报-20260323

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On March 20, the three major A-share indexes showed different trends. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.24% to 3957.05, below 4000 points. The Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.25% to 13866.20, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.30% to 3352.10. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 175.6 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 Index remained weak on March 20, closing at 4567.02, a decrease of 16.23 from the previous day [2] Coke and Coking Coal - On March 20, the weighted index of coke fluctuated and closed at 1761.7, up 8.4 from the previous day [2] - The weighted index of coking coal had a narrow - range fluctuation on March 20, closing at 1210.4 yuan, up 8.1 from the previous day [3] - For coke, coke enterprises' operating loads were stable, inventory decreased, and profit per ton turned positive. Steel mills' operations and molten iron production increased. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1470 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. In different regions, the operations in Shanxi were stable, most steel mills in Hebei resumed production, procurement in East China was cautious, and production in Central China improved [4] - For coking coal, Mongolian coal customs clearance remained high, coal washing plants' operations increased, and clean coal inventory decreased slightly. Downstream coke enterprises' operations were stable, coking coal inventory increased, and molten iron production rose. The price of Mongolian No. 5 clean coal in Tangshan was 1435 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1350 yuan/ton on the futures market. In different regions, the coal market showed different trends, and the import price of Mongolian coal was differentiated [4] Zhengzhou Sugar - Tensions in the Middle East war pushed up energy prices. The market worried that higher energy prices might lead sugar mills in Brazil and India to reduce sugar production and increase ethanol production. Affected by this, the US sugar futures rose on March 20, and the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract also rose at night [4] Rubber - Due to a large short - term decline, the Shanghai rubber futures rebounded on March 20 under the influence of technical factors. As of March 20, the inventory of natural rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 137,630 tons, an increase of 1580 tons from the previous day, and the futures warehouse receipts were 125,440 tons, an increase of 4600 tons. The inventory of No. 20 rubber was 48,686 tons, a decrease of 2016 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 48,082 tons, a decrease of 1209 tons [4][5] Palm Oil - On the night of March 20, the palm oil futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange had a narrow - range consolidation. The main contract P2605 closed with a doji star. The highest price was 9782, the lowest was 9650, and the closing price was 9724. From March 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 1,191,962 tons, a 38.06% increase from the same period last month [5] Soybean Meal - Internationally, on March 20, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1160.5 cents per bushel, a 0.68% decline. US soybean exports were lower than expected, and China's purchases were low. Brazil's soybean harvest was slow but the harvest was certain. ANEC estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in March would reach 16.32 million tons [5] - Domestically, on March 20, the main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 3029 yuan/ton, a 0.43% decline. Imported soybeans might be delayed, oil mills' operations were limited, and the inventory of soybean meal was low. Downstream replenishment was active. It was recommended to track South American weather, the Middle East situation, and soybean arrival rhythm [5] Live Pigs - On March 20, the main live pig contract LH2605 closed at 10,220 yuan/ton, a 1.11% decline. Large - scale pig farms' March slaughter plans increased significantly, and the supply was abundant. The post - holiday pork consumption was in the off - season, and the demand was weak. Secondary fattening and slaughter for cold storage were limited [5] Shanghai Copper - On March 20, the main Shanghai copper contract CU2605 closed at 94,740 yuan/ton. The intraday range was 91,820 - 96,400 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 243,300 lots, and the open interest was 201,200 lots (a slight decrease). The spot price of Shanghai No. 1 electrolytic copper was 95,825 yuan/ton, with a premium of 1085 yuan/ton. Affected by the Fed's hawkish stance and a stronger US dollar, the price opened low in the morning and rebounded in the afternoon. In January, the global refined copper supply had a surplus of 129,300 tons. China's refined copper production from January - February increased by 9%, and copper product production increased by 3.4%. The social inventory decreased continuously [5][6] Logs - On March 20, the main log contract 2605 opened at 814, with a low of 812, a high of 824, and closed at 823.5, with an increase of 1409 lots in open interest. The spot price of medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 770 yuan per cubic meter, and in Jiangsu was 780 yuan per cubic meter, both unchanged from the previous day. It was recommended to follow the spot price, import data, shipping costs, inventory changes, and market sentiment [6] Iron Ore - On March 20, the main iron ore contract 2605 rose 1.05% to 815.5 yuan. Iron ore shipments increased, arrivals decreased, port inventory accumulated, and steel mills' demand for molten iron increased. The iron ore price was in a volatile trend [6] Asphalt - On March 20, the main asphalt contract 2606 fell 3.88% to 4457 yuan. Domestic refineries reduced production due to unstable raw material supply, inventory increased slightly, downstream demand had not started, and refinery shipments decreased. The asphalt price might follow the oil price [6] Cotton - On the night of March 20, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 15,305 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 37 lots from the previous day. China showed an open attitude towards buying more US agricultural products, and downstream textile enterprises purchased as needed [6] Steel - In March, with the temperature rising, downstream construction sites entered the peak season, and demand gradually recovered. Infrastructure was the main support for the demand recovery in March. From January - February, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 11.4% year - on - year. In the first half of March, the steel price was strong due to rising raw material costs and recovering demand [6] Alumina - The cost of alumina was supported by the rising price of bauxite from Guinea. The supply of alumina increased due to rising imports and new production capacity. The demand for alumina was expected to increase as domestic electrolytic aluminum plants' operations were stable and there might be export demand [6] Shanghai Aluminum - The raw material cost of aluminum increased due to geopolitical factors, and the theoretical profit of smelters was good. The supply of aluminum ingots was abundant, and the social inventory was at a high level and still increasing. With the arrival of the "Golden March and Silver April" consumption season, the downstream demand for aluminum increased after the price decline. However, due to geopolitical factors, the aluminum price was under pressure, and downstream purchasing became more cautious [8]