苯乙烯：高位震荡

Report Overview - The report focuses on the styrene market, providing a comprehensive analysis of its fundamentals, trends, and market outlook [1][2][3] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Styrene is in a high - level oscillation phase. In the short term, it is not advisable to chase high prices, but the relative valuation of aromatics is not expensive. There are potential opportunities for port de - stocking of styrene and pure benzene [2][3] Summary by Category Fundamental Tracking - Futures prices: Styrene 2603 was 10,382 yuan, down 68 from the previous day; Styrene 2604 was 10,104 yuan, down 114; Styrene 2605 was 10,151 yuan, down 70 [1] - Spreads and profits: EB - BZ was 1925, down 125; Non - integrated profit was - 268, down 160; Integrated profit was 1295, up 222 [1] - Contract spreads: EB03 - 04 was 278, up 46; EB04 - 05 was - 47, down 44; N + 1 contract was 9900, down 400; N + 2 contract was 9920, down 400 [1] Spot News - Pure benzene supply: Due to reduced cracking unit loads, Asian pure benzene supply will significantly decrease in April, with imports dropping to around 380,000 tons, which is beneficial for subsequent port de - stocking [2] - Styrene exports: Domestic styrene exports continue to increase. Overseas styrene production is declining, creating new export opportunities for China. If exports exceed 100,000 tons after April and some refinery overhauls in East China are implemented, styrene ports may see de - stocking [2] - Downstream replenishment: Other downstream industries of pure benzene are actively replenishing stocks. The demand of downstream industries is expected to rise from March to June, and with the short - term spot shortage of pure benzene, downstream profits are still relatively high and there is no negative feedback yet [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of styrene is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The range of trend intensity is [-2, 2], where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [1] Valuation Analysis - The current valuation of styrene mainly refers to the situation during the Russia - Ukraine conflict. After the aromatics blending oil demand starts in the second quarter, various spreads are likely to exceed those in 2022. At present, when the average profit level corresponds to crude oil at $100, a styrene futures price of around 10,000 yuan/ton is reasonable. However, the naphtha cracking spread is expanding, and the BZN is at a historical low, so the valuation center still has upward momentum [3]