五矿期货农产品早报-20260323

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - For sugar, due to the current continuous discount of raw sugar prices to the Brazilian ethanol conversion price and the potential reduction of the sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio in Brazil's new crushing season after April this year, along with alleviated domestic production pressure at the end of the crushing season, sugar prices may still have room to rebound. It is advisable to consider going long on dips [3]. - For cotton, the newly issued 300,000 - ton import quota in China is short - term negative for Zhengzhou cotton prices and positive for US cotton prices. In the medium term, with the continuous increase in downstream opening rates, Zhengzhou cotton prices have found temporary support at the bottom and may rebound. It is recommended to try going long on dips [4][6]. - For protein meal, the March USDA report is neutral. Affected by the geopolitical crisis, short - term crude oil prices fluctuate sharply, driving protein meal prices to fluctuate significantly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [9]. - For oils, affected by the geopolitical crisis, short - term crude oil prices have risen significantly, driving oil prices higher. Before the end of the US - Iran incident, crude oil prices will remain high, and Indonesia is expected to tighten palm oil exports. It is bullish on oils in the medium term [12]. - For eggs, although the production capacity is on a downward trend, the absolute supply level is still high, and the pace of capacity reduction has slowed down. The spot price is strong due to pulsed demand, but the future price increase space and sustainability are questionable. It is recommended to short on rallies in the near - term contracts, and pay attention to the support from rising cost in the far - term contracts [14]. - For pigs, the supply is in a concentrated release period while the demand is weak. The spot price is weak, and there is still a lack of a basis for price increases in the medium term. The futures price has accelerated its decline. It is recommended to wait and see for now [17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar - Market Information: From January to February 2026, China imported 280,000 tons and 240,000 tons of sugar respectively, an increase of 220,000 tons each compared to the same period last year, with a total increase of 440,000 tons. As of February, the national cumulative sugar production was 9.26 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 455,000 tons; the monthly sugar sales were 750,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 266,000 tons; and the industrial inventory was 5.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 840,000 tons. As of March 15, 2026, India's cumulative sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season was 26.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49 million tons; Thailand's sugar production reached 10.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 545,000 tons. The ISO predicted at the end of February that the global sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season would be 181.29 million tons [2]. Cotton - Market Information: From January to February 2026, China imported 210,000 tons and 170,000 tons of cotton respectively, an increase of 60,000 tons and 50,000 tons compared to the same period last year; and imported 160,000 tons and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn respectively, an increase of 60,000 tons and 20,000 tons compared to the same period last year. China's National Development and Reform Commission issued an additional 300,000 - ton tariff - rate quota for processing trade imports outside the tariff quota. From March 5th to March 12th, the US current - year cotton export sales were 46,400 tons, with cumulative export sales of 2.1919 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 178,400 tons; among which, the export to China was 2,400 tons that week, with cumulative exports of 106,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 86,800 tons. As of the week of March 20th, the spinning mill's operating rate was 78.6%, a week - on - week increase of 2.6 percentage points; the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.04 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons. The USDA predicted in March that the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season would be 26.34 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 240,000 tons compared to the February prediction and an increase of 540,000 tons compared to the previous season; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 64.42%, a month - on - month increase of 1.15 percentage points and an increase of 2.4 percentage points compared to the previous season [4]. Protein Meal - Market Information: S&P Global predicted that the US corn planting area in 2026 would reach 95.2 million acres, higher than the 95 million acres predicted in January; the US soybean planting area was predicted to be 85 million acres, higher than the 84.5 million acres predicted in January. From March 5th to March 12th, the US exported 300,000 tons of soybeans, with current - year cumulative exports of 36.79 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.84 million tons; among which, the export to China was 80,000 tons that week, with current - year cumulative exports to China of 10.98 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.65 million tons. As of the week of March 13th, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans in 2026 was 15.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.19 million tons; the sample soybean port inventory was 5.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.19 million tons. The USDA predicted in March that the global soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 427.17 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 990,000 tons compared to the February prediction and an increase of 28,000 tons compared to the previous season; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.54%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points and a decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous season [8]. Oils - Market Information: The President of Indonesia stated that Indonesian coal, crude palm oil and its derivative production enterprises were not allowed to export relevant products before meeting domestic demand. From March 1st to 15th, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 5.28% month - on - month. The Indonesian Ministry of Energy's deputy minister said that the government was studying the possibility of restarting the B50 mandatory blending policy in the middle of this year. In January 2026, Indonesia's total palm oil exports were 2.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 490,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 860,000 tons. In February, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.28 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 300,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 90,000 tons; exports were 1.13 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 330,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 130,000 tons; inventory was 2.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 120,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.19 million tons. From March 1st to 15th, Malaysia's palm oil product exports were 921,000 tons (AmSpec data) and 926,000 tons (ITS data), an increase of 56.9% and 43.5% respectively compared to the same period last month. As of the end of February, India's vegetable oil inventory was 1.87 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 120,000 tons and basically the same as the same period last year. In the week of March 13th, the inventory of three major domestic sample oils was 2.01 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 70,000 tons [11]. Eggs - Market Information: The national egg prices were stable with some increases yesterday. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas rose by 0.02 yuan to 3.19 yuan per catty. The price of large - sized eggs in Heishan remained unchanged at 3 yuan per catty, and the price in Guantao rose by 0.09 yuan to 3.07 yuan per catty. The supply was stable, the downstream sales speed varied, most traders were confident about the future market, the inventory at each link was appropriate, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was stable. It is expected that today's national egg prices will mostly remain stable with a few increases [13]. Pigs - Market Information: The domestic pig prices continued to fall over the weekend. The average price in Henan dropped by 0.08 yuan to 9.94 yuan per kilogram, the average price in Sichuan dropped by 0.11 yuan to 9.76 yuan per kilogram, and the average price in Guangxi dropped by 0.1 yuan to 9.54 yuan per kilogram. The slaughter weight of farmers was generally large, and most farmers were reducing the weight of pigs. The supply was active, the downstream demand recovered slowly, the market sales were poor, and farmers were reducing prices to sell. It is expected that today's pig prices will fall in the north and remain stable in the south [16].