农产品策略周报：宏观主导，预计棉糖油粕偏强-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The current agricultural product futures market is dominated by macro - driving, with strengthened cost support. The Middle - East geopolitical conflict persists, keeping crude oil prices high. Combined with the expected US biodiesel policy and the contraction of cotton and sugar supply, these factors have replaced traditional industrial supply - demand as the core of pricing, presenting a "strong expectation, weak reality" pattern. Cotton and sugar are driven by both supply - demand and valuation, oil and meal still have effective cost support, the supply - demand of pigs is loose with continuously weak prices, and corn is in a neutral oscillation [2]. - It is recommended to focus on long positions in oil - meal, sugar, and cotton 09 contracts in the near future [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Market Characteristics: Last week, agricultural product futures were still dominated by macro - driving, with strong - weak differentiation among varieties and intensified overall fluctuations. Geopolitical conflicts pushed up crude oil and agricultural material costs, and the expected implementation of the US biodiesel policy became the core anchor for agricultural product prices [9]. - Performance of Different Varieties: Cotton and sugar benefited from the expected global supply contraction and the strengthening of the external market, with clear long - term directions. The oil - and - oilseed sector was generally strong due to crude oil premium and biodiesel demand. Meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) was more elastic due to short - term tight arrival expectations, high basis, and increased fluctuations in US soybeans. Soybean oil and palm oil were at historical highs with convergent oscillations. Pigs were continuously weak due to weak supply - demand and the off - season of consumption. Corn maintained a neutral oscillation under the marginal influence of inventory and policies [9]. 3.2 Agricultural Product Futures Supply - Demand Pattern - Overall Situation: As of March 20, most agricultural products' supply - demand patterns were neutral. Only cotton and sugar were bullish, while pigs were bearish. For other varieties such as meal, oil, corn, eggs, and peanuts, the long - and short - term factors offset each other, with no clear trend [15]. - Specific Varieties: Cotton benefited from supply - side support, sugar was driven by the strengthening of the external market, and pigs were under pressure due to weak supply - demand [15]. 3.3 Agricultural Product Futures Strategy Signals - Analysis of Different Varieties: Recently, cotton and sugar showed strong bullish characteristics. Cotton had a high basis, and sugar was at a low price with a safety margin for long positions. Most varieties such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, corn, and eggs were in a neutral oscillation range. Palm oil, pigs, and peanuts were judged as weak varieties [19]. - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to prioritize the layout of strong bullish varieties such as cotton and sugar, and be vigilant about the retracement risk of high - volatility varieties and the impact of basis changes [19]. 3.4 Current Strategy Recommendations - Trend Strategy for Different Varieties: Hold long positions in soybean meal and rapeseed meal 09 contracts as crude oil prices remain high, the US biodiesel policy is expected to be implemented, and the cost of imported soybeans is rising. Hold long positions in soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil 09 contracts due to the continuous Middle - East geopolitical conflict, high crude oil prices, and the expected implementation of the US biodiesel policy. Hold long positions in sugar 09 contracts as high crude oil prices lead Brazilian sugar mills to reduce the sugar - making ratio and increase ethanol production, combined with the reduction of Indian production and the narrowing of the global surplus expectation, as well as domestic cost support and restocking demand. Hold long positions in cotton 09 contracts as policy - driven production cuts set the tone for a tight - balance in the new year, crude oil pushes up costs and substitution cost - effectiveness, and downstream restocking demand during the "Golden March and Silver April" period, with strong expectations offsetting the high - inventory reality and a medium - to - long - term shift to a tight - balance [21][22]. 3.5 Driving Force Schematic - Core Bullish Allocations: As of March 20, cotton, sugar, and soybean meal were the core bullish allocation directions. Corn, pigs, etc. should be on the sidelines or try short positions on rallies. Most oil and meal varieties were in an oscillating pattern, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in supply - demand and valuation [24].