贵金属：贵金属日报-20260323

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The escalation of the US-Iran war has raised expectations of rising crude oil prices and global inflation concerns, causing central banks to be cautious about interest rate cuts. Major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, have maintained their current interest rates, strengthening the simultaneous rise of real interest rates and the US dollar. Combined with the decline in near - term interest rate cut expectations, the valuation of precious metals is continuously under pressure. Gold ETF outflows have increased recently, further intensifying the short - term pressure on precious metals. Although gold has support from central bank gold purchases and geopolitical uncertainties in the medium term, it has entered a high - level consolidation phase in the short term. If the US dollar remains strong and interest rate cut expectations continue to be postponed, the retracement pressure will persist. The report recommends a cautious bearish stance, with the reference operating range for the Shanghai Gold main contract at 970 - 1050 yuan/gram and the Shanghai Silver main contract at 16300 - 20000 yuan/kilogram [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold fell 1.22% to 1016.12 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver fell 1.88% to 17139.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold fell 1.11% to 4524.20 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver fell 1.23% to 68.81 US dollars/ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.39%, and the US dollar index was 99.61 [2] Policy and Geopolitical News - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% - 3.75% in its March FOMC meeting, with Director Milan voting against and advocating a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut. On Thursday, central banks in Japan, the UK, Europe, Switzerland, and Sweden also announced that they would keep their interest rates unchanged, while the Brazilian central bank made a hawkish 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, which was lower than market expectations [2] - US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that the US has sufficient funds for the war and will not increase taxes due to the war. He also claimed that "50 days of rising prices can bring 50 years of a nuclear - free Iran." In response to US President Trump's threats, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has proposed four counter - measures. If Trump fulfills his threats, Iran will completely close the Strait of Hormuz, attack all Israeli power stations, energy and information technology facilities, completely destroy all US - owned companies in the Middle East, and attack the power stations of countries with US military bases in the Middle East [3] Key Data of Gold and Silver - For gold, on March 20, 2026, compared with March 19, 2026, COMEX Gold's closing price (active contract) was 4492.00 US dollars/ounce, down 3.44%; trading volume was 22.08 million lots, down 25.68%; open interest was 41.14 million lots, down 0.62%; inventory remained unchanged at 997 tons. LBMA Gold's closing price was 4562.55 US dollars/ounce, down 0.82%; the closing price (active contract) was 1039.22 yuan/gram, down 2.15%; trading volume was 68.16 million lots, up 55.84%. SHFE Gold's open interest was 29.99 million lots, down 2.00%; inventory remained unchanged at 106.85 tons; the settled funds were 49.867 billion yuan, down 4.10%. AuT + D's trading volume was 84.14 tons, up 11.07%; open interest was 227.39 tons, down 3.11% [6] - For silver, on March 20, 2026, compared with March 19, 2026, COMEX Silver's closing price (active contract) was 67.81 US dollars/ounce, down 6.87%; open interest was 11.48 million lots, down 0.61%; inventory was 10348 tons, down 0.59%. LBMA Silver's closing price was 72.37 US dollars/ounce, up 3.83%; the closing price (active contract) was 17,625.00 yuan/kilogram, down 2.00%; trading volume was 182.88 million lots, up 45.74%. SHFE Silver's open interest was 45.86 million lots, down 2.86%; inventory was 362.50 tons, down 0.65%; the settled funds were 21.825 billion yuan, down 4.80%. AgT + D's trading volume was 519.90 tons, up 15.89%; open interest was 2918.764 tons, up 0.55% [6] ETF Holdings - For gold ETFs, on March 20, 2026, compared with March 19, 2026, the closing price of SPDR US was 413.38 US dollars, down 3.06%; the holding volume was 1056.99 tons, down 0.48%; the settled funds were 15.5012 billion US dollars, down 1.30%; the trading volume was 26.8441 million shares, down 11.13%. The holding volume of iShare US was 477.33 tons, down 0.09%. The holding volumes of GBS UK, PHAU UK, and SGBS Switzerland remained unchanged, while the holding volume of GOLD UK was 29.91 tons, down 0.17% [67] - For silver ETFs, on March 20, 2026, compared with March 19, 2026, the closing price of SLV US was 61.52 US dollars, down 6.33%; the holding volume was 15248.90 tons, up 0.41%; the settled funds were 3.5469 billion US dollars, up 4.25%; the trading volume was 55.0312 million shares, down 42.79%. The holding volumes of ETPMAG Australia, PSLV Canada, and CEF Canada remained unchanged [67]