格林大华期货早盘提示尿素-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the significant escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, international crude oil fluctuates sharply at a high level. Some urea production plants in the Middle East have temporarily shut down, causing overseas urea prices to surge. Mid - and downstream buyers are cautious about high - price purchases, while upstream factories currently face little pressure. Exports have been urgently halted, and reserve supplies are expected to be released into the market. It is predicted that urea prices will oscillate within the range of 1810 - 1940 [1] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review - On Friday, the price of the urea main contract 2605 dropped by 32 yuan to 1841 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the central - China mainstream area decreased by 10 yuan to 1860 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, long positions decreased by 7002 lots to 268,000 lots, and short positions decreased by 6420 lots to 311,000 lots [1] 3.2 Important Information - Supply: The daily output of the urea industry is 209,000 tons, 1000 tons less than the previous working day and 12,000 tons more than the same period last year. The operating rate is 88.9%, 1.2% higher than 87.7% in the same period last year [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 808,900 tons, 148,000 tons less than the previous period, a 15.5% month - on - month decrease. The sample inventory at urea ports is 167,000 tons, a 22,000 - ton month - on - month decrease [1] - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 49.9%, a 4.4% month - on - month increase, and the operating rate of melamine is 53.3%, a 3.9% month - on - month increase [1] - India's Tender: India's RCF urea import tender, with the latest shipping date on March 31, received 20 suppliers with a total bid volume of over 3.07 million tons. The lowest offer on the east coast is CFR512 dollars/ton, and on the west coast is CFR508 dollars/ton. India intends to purchase 1.5 million tons in this tender [1] - Import and Export in December 2025: Urea imports in December 2025 were 35.39 tons, an 82.11% month - on - month decrease; the average import price was 2963.69 dollars/ton, a 52.11% month - on - month decrease. Urea exports in December 2025 were 278,300 tons, a 53.75% month - on - month decrease; the average export price was 398.27 dollars/ton, a 56.64% month - on - month decrease [1] - Oil Price: The Middle East situation has led to significant production cuts in multiple oil - producing countries, and there are reports that the US may send ground troops, increasing supply risks and causing international oil prices to rise. The NYMEX crude oil futures 04 contract rose 2.18 dollars/barrel to 98.32 dollars/barrel, a 2.27% month - on - month increase; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 05 contract rose 3.54 dollars/barrel to 112.19 dollars/barrel, a 3.26% month - on - month increase. The China INE crude oil futures 2605 contract dropped 27 to 776.4 yuan/barrel and rose 26.4 to 802.8 yuan/barrel in night trading [1] 3.3 Market Logic - The sharp escalation of the Middle East geopolitical situation causes international crude oil to fluctuate sharply at a high level. Temporary shutdowns of some urea production plants in the Middle East lead to a sharp rise in overseas urea prices. Mid - and downstream buyers are cautious about high - price purchases, while upstream factories currently face little pressure. Exports have been urgently halted, and reserve supplies are expected to be released into the market [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see or conduct range - bound operations [1]