格林大华期货早盘提示：尿素-20260323

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating" [1] Core View - Due to the significant escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, international crude oil fluctuates sharply at a high level. Some urea production facilities in the Middle East are shut down temporarily, leading to a sharp increase in overseas urea prices. The middle and lower reaches are cautious about accepting high - priced goods, and currently, the pressure on upstream factories is not great. Exports are urgently stopped, and reserve supplies are expected to be put on the market. It is expected that the urea price will oscillate in the range of 1810 - 1940 [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Friday, the price of the main urea contract 2605 dropped by 32 yuan to 1841 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the central China's mainstream area fell by 10 yuan to 1860 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, long positions decreased by 7002 lots to 268,000 lots, and short positions decreased by 6420 lots to 311,000 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: The daily output of the urea industry is 209,000 tons, 1000 tons less than the previous working day and 12,000 tons more than the same period last year. The operating rate is 88.9%, 1.2% higher than 87.7% in the same period last year [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 808,900 tons, 148,000 tons less than the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 15.5%. The sample inventory at urea ports is 167,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22,000 tons [1] - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 49.9%, a month - on - month increase of 4.4%, and the operating rate of melamine is 53.3%, a month - on - month increase of 3.9% [1] - India's RCF urea import tender: The latest shipment date is March 31. A total of 20 suppliers participated, with a total bid volume of over 3.07 million tons. The lowest offer on the east coast is CFR512 US dollars/ton, and on the west coast is CFR508 US dollars/ton. India intends to purchase 1.5 million tons in this tender [1] - Import and export in December 2025: Urea imports were 35.39 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 82.11%; the average import price was 2963.69 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 52.11%. Urea exports were 278,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 53.75%; the average export price was 398.27 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 56.64% [1] - Oil prices: The Middle East situation has led to significant production cuts in multiple oil - producing countries, and there are reports that the US may send additional ground troops, increasing supply risks and causing international oil prices to rise. The NYMEX crude oil futures 04 contract rose 2.18 US dollars/barrel to 98.32 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 2.27%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 05 contract rose 3.54 US dollars/barrel to 112.19 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 3.26%. The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2605 contract dropped 27 to 776.4 yuan/barrel, and rose 26.4 to 802.8 yuan/barrel at night [1] Market Logic - The sharp escalation of the Middle East geopolitical situation causes high - level and volatile international crude oil prices. Temporary shutdowns of some urea production facilities in the Middle East lead to a sharp increase in overseas urea prices. The middle and lower reaches are cautious about high - priced purchases, and upstream factories currently face little pressure. Exports are halted, and reserve supplies are expected to enter the market. Urea prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 1810 - 1940 [1] Trading Strategy - Suggested to wait and see or conduct range - bound operations [1]