猪价跌跌不休，弱势行情何时见底？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The pig futures market continued to be weak this week, with the main contract price falling by more than 8% in a single week. The spot price also declined, and the pig price has been below the industry average cost line for nearly half a year. The supply side has a high inventory base and high slaughter weights, while the terminal consumption is in a seasonal off - season, making it difficult to support pig prices. The policy side released capacity control signals, and it is expected that the reasonable reserve target of breeding sows will be further reduced to 36.5 million, a reduction of 7.8% compared to the end of 2025. In the short term, the supply - strong and demand - weak situation has not changed, and the market may continue to oscillate at a low level [8][81]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review 3.1.1. Futures Price - Last week, the pig futures market continued to be weak and accelerated its decline. The main contract price hit new lows. As of March 20, the LH2605 contract was reported at 10,220 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of more than 8% [5][13]. 3.1.2. Spot Price - Since 2026, the domestic pig market has continued to decline. As of March 20, the national average pig slaughter price dropped to 9.87 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decline of 0.16 yuan/kg and a year - on - year decline of more than 30%. The pig price has fallen below the industry's break - even line, and the breeding side is in a deep - loss range. The price of piglets and sows also declined, and the price of culled sows decreased by 1.17% week - on - week [19][22][29]. 3.1.3. Spread Situation - The futures and spot prices of pigs declined together this week. The basis was weak at a low level, and as of March 20, the pig basis was reported at - 350 yuan/ton. The spread between standard and fat pigs continued to narrow, reaching - 0.64 yuan/kg [33][36]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Supply Side - Breeding Sows Inventory: As of the end of January 2026, the national inventory of breeding sows was 39.58 million, a slight month - on - month decrease of 0.08%. In February, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms changed little [42]. - Pig Inventory: As of the end of January 2026, the national pig inventory was 429.02 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15%. In February, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms increased by 1.79% month - on - month, and that in small and medium - sized farms increased by 1.36% month - on - month. The inventory in March may continue to increase [48]. - Pig Slaughter: In February, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms decreased by 12.95% month - on - month, while that in small and medium - sized farms increased by 2.85% month - on - month. The overall slaughter pressure in March is still high [57]. - Average Slaughter Weight: Last week, the average slaughter weight of三元 pigs increased slightly to 123.28 kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.11 kg [62]. 3.2.2. Demand Side - Slaughtering Enterprises' Operating Rate: Last week, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises rebounded slightly to 30.45%, a week - on - week increase of 1.92% [66]. - Frozen Product Storage Rate and Fresh Sales Rate: Last week, the fresh sales rate of key slaughtering enterprises was 80.17%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.27%, and the frozen product storage rate was 18.72%, a month - on - month increase of 0.88% [71]. 3.2.3. Cost - Profit Situation - Self - Breeding and Purchasing Piglets Profit and Loss: As of March 20, the average loss per head in the self - breeding mode was 286.53 yuan, and that in the mode of purchasing piglets was 177.96 yuan [77]. - Pig - Grain Ratio: The current pig - grain ratio is 4.15, which is in the first - level early - warning range of excessive pig price decline. The industry is in a deep - loss state, and the elimination of inefficient production capacity is expected to accelerate [80]. 3.3. Market Outlook - In the short term, although the policy control signal has repaired the market's pessimistic sentiment, the current supply - strong and demand - weak fundamental pattern has not changed, and the market may continue to oscillate at a low level [8][81][82]. 3.4. Operation Strategy - Single - Side: In the short term, adopt a weak - oscillation strategy and pay attention to the slaughter rhythm; in the medium term, track the progress of production capacity reduction and layout opportunities for cycle reversal. - Arbitrage: None - Options: None [9][83]