观点与策略：国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列-20260323

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The raw material sector of rebar and hot-rolled coil has high sentiment and will experience wide fluctuations [2][4]. - The silicon iron and manganese silicon sectors have resonance in sentiment, with silicon iron showing a relatively strong oscillation and manganese silicon having high bullish sentiment and a relatively strong oscillation [2][8]. - The coke and coking coal markets have fermented sentiment and will oscillate with a bullish bias [2][11]. - The sentiment of thermal coal is strong, and port transactions are moving upward [2][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar and Hot-rolled Coil - Fundamental Data: The closing price of RB2605 was 3,123 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 0.26%; the closing price of HC2605 was not provided. The trading volume of RB2605 was 724,139 lots, the position was 1,387,220 lots, and the position change was -62,026 lots. The trading volume of HC2605 was 276,514 lots, the position was 1,098,203 lots, and the position change was -44,974 lots [4]. - Macro and Industry News: On March 19, the weekly data from Steel Union showed that the production of rebar increased by 8.03 tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 4.95 tons, and the total of five major varieties increased by 18.85 tons; the total inventory of rebar decreased by 4.76 tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 10.3 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 28.66 tons; the apparent demand of rebar increased by 31.28 tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 15.5 tons, and the total increased by 70.4 tons [5]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 0 [7]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - Fundamental Data: The closing price of silicon iron 2605 was 5,932 yuan/ton, up 108 yuan; the closing price of silicon iron 2607 was 6,046 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the closing price of manganese silicon 2605 was 6,400 yuan/ton, up 212 yuan; the closing price of manganese silicon 2607 was 6,430 yuan/ton, up 208 yuan [8]. - Macro and Industry News: On March 20, the price of 72 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 5,400 - 5,500 yuan/ton, in Ningxia was 5,450 - 5,500 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), in Qinghai was 5,450 - 5,550 yuan/ton, in Gansu was 5,500 - 5,600 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia was 5,500 - 5,600 yuan/ton; the price of 75 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 6,050 - 6,100 yuan/ton, in Ningxia was 5,950 - 6,000 yuan/ton, in Qinghai was 5,900 - 6,000 yuan/ton, in Gansu was 5,950 - 6,000 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia was 6,000 - 6,050 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 silicon iron was 1,140 - 1,160 US dollars/ton (up 20 US dollars), and the FOB price of 75 silicon iron was 1,160 - 1,180 US dollars/ton (up 10 US dollars). The northern quotation of 6517 silicon manganese was 5,850 - 5,900 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation was 5,950 - 6,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of silicon iron is 0, and the trend intensity of manganese silicon is 1 [10]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamental Data: The closing price of JM2605 was 1,171 yuan/ton, up 11.5 yuan or 1.0%; the closing price of J2605 was 1,740.5 yuan/ton, up 19.5 yuan or 1.1%. The trading volume of JM2605 was 753,774 lots, the position was 384,256 lots, and the position change was -7,338 lots. The trading volume of J2605 was 14,432 lots, the position was 31,289 lots, and the position change was not provided [11]. - Macro and Industry News: On March 20, the CCI metallurgical coal index of China Coal Resources Network showed that the CCI Shanxi low-sulfur main coking coal S0.7 was 1,451 yuan/ton, the CCI Shanxi medium-sulfur main coking coal S1.3 was 1,260 yuan/ton, and the CCI Shanxi high-sulfur main coking coal S1.6 was 1,254 yuan/ton. The on-line auction of coking coal in the production area on March 20 had a total listing volume of 17.4 tons, a non - successful bid rate of 3% (up 3% from the previous day), and an average premium of 48.92 yuan/ton [11]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0 [13]. Thermal Coal - Fundamental Data: The price of Shanxi Datong 5500 was 585 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the price of Inner Mongolia Ordos 5500 was 528 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the price of Shaanxi Yulin 5800 was 599 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan. The price of Qinhuangdao Port's Shanxi - produced Q5500 was 735 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the price of Q5000 was 652 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the price of Q4500 was 572 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [14]. - Macro and Industry News: On March 20, the port thermal coal market maintained a strong trend. Due to the rising coal mine prices, the cost of traders increased, and the quotes were firm. The non - power demand from downstream cement and chemical industries increased significantly, supporting the upward movement of the market transaction center. From January to February 2026, the national raw coal production was 76,289 tons, a slight year - on - year decrease of 0.3% [15]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of thermal coal (based on the spot price of thermal coal at Beigang) is 1 [15].