光大环境2025年归母净利/DPS/派息比例齐增

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 6.77 [6][5]. Core Views - The company achieved a net profit of HKD 3.925 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, exceeding expectations due to lower-than-expected asset impairment and reduced financial costs [1][5]. - The company plans to increase its dividend per share (DPS) to HKD 0.27 in 2025, up from HKD 0.23 in 2024, indicating a positive signal for potential value reassessment [1][4]. - The company is focusing on refined management to drive revenue growth while controlling costs, alongside actively expanding its overseas business [1][4]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2025, the company reported total revenue of HKD 27.521 billion, a decrease of 9.0% year-on-year, primarily due to a 53% drop in construction revenue [1][10]. - The operational revenue contribution increased to 72% in 2025, with operational income reaching HKD 19.719 billion, reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth [2][10]. - The company’s free cash flow for 2025 was RMB 10.13 billion, significantly up from RMB 4.04 billion in 2024, driven by better-than-expected government subsidy repayments [4][10]. Business Expansion and Strategy - The company is expanding into the Central Asian solid waste market and has established overseas offices in Vietnam, Indonesia, and Central Asia to shift from project-driven to regional deep cultivation [3][5]. - New projects in Uzbekistan and Thailand have been secured, marking significant breakthroughs in the overseas market [3][5]. - The company is implementing refined management practices across its operations, leading to significant reductions in key operational costs [2][4]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2026-2028 are HKD 4.097 billion, HKD 4.225 billion, and HKD 4.356 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of HKD 0.67, HKD 0.69, and HKD 0.71 [5][10]. - The report anticipates a PE ratio of 10.1x for 2026, reflecting the company's ongoing efforts in refined management and overseas expansion [5][10].