GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2026-03-23 02:50Market Overview - The Chinese stock market is expected to reach an important bottom and rebound point, with stability being a key factor and confidence essential[1] - The Shanghai Composite Index has broken key support levels, with the average adjustment across all A-shares nearing 9% and the CSI 1000 down by 10%[4] Market Drivers - Recent market adjustments are attributed to inflation risks and expectations of financial tightening, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties, particularly regarding the US-Iran situation[4] - The micro-structure of stock trading has weakened, leading to reduced risk appetite among investors, despite the indirect impact of external conflicts on China[4] Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the current micro-trading shocks will not last long, advising against panic selling and indicating a potential for a significant market rebound[4] - China’s diverse energy reserves and stable economic conditions are highlighted as unique advantages that can help mitigate risks[4] Risk Pricing Phases - The report outlines three phases of risk pricing: 1. Anticipation of shocks (March-June 2022) with rising oil prices and initial Fed rate hikes leading to market declines[4] 2. Real shocks (post-June 2022) where the intensity of conflicts decreased, leading to a stabilization in oil prices and a rebound in the market[4] 3. Return to growth logic (from January 2023) driven by advancements in the AI sector and increased capital expenditures[4] Sector Recommendations - Financial and stable sectors remain preferred, with high dividend yields in banks, power, highways, and coal being recommended[4] - Technology manufacturing and energy transition sectors are seen as critical for breaking the narrative of stagflation, with recommendations for electric equipment, new energy vehicles, and semiconductors[4] Thematic Investment Opportunities - Key themes include energy transition, collaborative computing, overseas tokenization, and commercial aerospace, with specific recommendations for infrastructure and technology investments[4] - The report emphasizes the importance of new energy systems and the development of advanced energy equipment as part of China's strategic initiatives[4] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected overseas economic downturns and uncertainties in global geopolitics, which could impact market stability[4]