纯碱周报：重回宏观预期与基本面博弈格局-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The soda ash market is under pressure due to the game between macro - expectations and fundamentals. The supply is abundant with a slight weekly increase in production and high industry operating rates. The demand is stable, with downstream enterprises mainly replenishing stocks based on rigid needs and showing increasing resistance to high prices. The latest real - estate data from January - February suppress the long - term demand expectations for soda ash. Although short - term inventory reduction provides bottom support, the upward space for futures prices is limited, and the market may continue to fluctuate and consolidate [8][37] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation 3.1.1 Production and Capacity Analysis - As of March 19, 2026, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 818,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,900 tons or 1.11%. Among them, the light soda ash production was 384,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,200 tons, and the heavy soda ash production was 434,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,700 tons [9] - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 86.38%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.62 percentage points compared with the previous value of 87%. The ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 90.45%, remaining flat month - on - month; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 79.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.44 percentage points. The overall capacity utilization rate of 16 enterprises with an annual capacity of 1 million tons or more was 88.17%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.83 percentage points [11] 3.1.2 Soda Ash Inventory Analysis - As of March 19, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8538 million tons, a decrease of 49,700 tons or 2.61% from Monday. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 963,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 38,800 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory was 890,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,900 tons. Compared with the previous Thursday, it decreased by 77,900 tons or 4.03%. The inventory was 166,000 tons or 9.84% higher than the same period last year [14] 3.1.3 Shipment Situation Analysis - As of March 19, 2026, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 887,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.85%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 109.63%, a month - on - month increase of 7.71 percentage points [16] 3.1.4 Profit Analysis - As of March 19, 2026, the theoretical profit (dual - ton) of the Chinese co - production method for soda ash was 227.5 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 37.50%. The price of raw material rock salt was stable during the week, the price of thermal coal fluctuated downward, the cost continued to decline, the soda ash price remained stable, and the price of by - product ammonium chloride increased, so the dual - ton profit of the co - production method continued to strengthen [19] - As of March 19, 2026, the theoretical profit of the Chinese ammonia - soda process for soda ash was - 25.30 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.90 yuan/ton. The price of raw material sea salt remained stable during the week, the price of anthracite continued to decline, the cost fluctuated downward, and the market price of soda ash was stable, so the profit of the ammonia - soda process only adjusted slightly [23] 3.2 Downstream Industry Situation 3.2.1 Supply Side of the Float Glass Industry - As of March 19, 2026, the daily output of national float glass was 145,800 tons, a decrease of 0.75% compared with the 12th. The output of national float glass from March 13 - 19, 2026 was 1.0223 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.06% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.9% [26][30] 3.2.2 Float Glass Industry Inventory - As of March 19, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 7.4436 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 1.86% [31] 3.3 Price Analysis - The price of thermal coal (5500 kcal) decreased by 1.75% month - on - month; the prices of well - mine salt in different regions remained unchanged; the prices of light and heavy soda ash in various regions remained stable; the price of float glass increased by 0.52% month - on - month; the price of photovoltaic glass remained unchanged; the price of 32% caustic soda in Jiangsu increased by 4.88% month - on - month; the price of dry ammonium chloride in Henan increased by 13.79% month - on - month; the price of synthetic ammonia in Jiangsu increased by 14.22% month - on - month [36] 3.4 Comprehensive Analysis - Last week, the soda ash futures price fluctuated downward with a significant weekly decline. The market is under pressure due to the game between macro - expectations and fundamentals. The supply is abundant, the demand is stable, and the inventory of soda ash manufacturers is decreasing, which supports the market sentiment. However, the macro - level concerns remain, and the real - estate data suppress the long - term demand expectations. The profit of the co - production method continues to strengthen, and the loss of the ammonia - soda process narrows. The upward space for futures prices is limited, and the market may continue to fluctuate and consolidate [37] 3.5 Operation Suggestions - Unilateral: Wait and see or try to short on rebounds - Arbitrage: None - Options: Consider selling out - of - the - money call options to collect premiums [38]