分化延续客商东移，关注清明备货情况

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The apple futures price is expected to maintain a volatile and upward trend in the short term. The low inventory and tight supply of high - quality goods provide strong support for apple prices. In the short term, apple prices will remain polarized, with high - quality goods continuing to be strong, and some low - quality goods may be sold at discounted prices. With the upcoming Tomb - Sweeping Festival, downstream demand is expected to be boosted, accelerating inventory clearance [7][55]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Futures Price - Last week, the main contract of apple futures, AP2605, showed a volatile upward trend and a significant overall increase. As of the afternoon close on March 20, 2026, the apple 2605 contract was reported at 10,721 yuan/ton, rising 723 yuan/ton for the week, a 7.23% increase [5][10]. 3.1.2 Spot Price - Shandong: The overall apple price in Shandong remained stable last week. Some buyers of high - quality goods moved from the western to Shandong. The price of high - quality goods was firm. In Penglai, the mainstream price of 75 first - and second - grade fruit farmers' apples was 2.8 - 3.6 yuan/jin, 80 was 3.5 - 4.5 yuan/jin, and third - grade fruit was 1.3 - 2.5 yuan/jin. In Qixia, the price of 80 first - and second - grade late - Fuji apple farmers' goods was 3.2 - 4.5 yuan/jin, 75 general goods was 2.2 - 2.5 yuan/jin, and 65 - 70 small fruits was about 2 yuan/jin [16]. - Shaanxi: The trading of high - quality goods in Shaanxi was active in the first half of the week and slowed down in the second half. The overall trading in Yan'an was mainly high - quality goods, with prices firm. In Luochuan, the ex - warehouse price of 70 and above semi - commercial fruit farmers' apples was 4.0 - 4.5 yuan/jin, and the general goods was 3.5 - 4 yuan/jin. In Baishui, the price of 75 high - quality general goods was 2.8 - 3.0 yuan/jin [21]. 3.2 Production Area Situation - Gansu: On March 21, 2026, the inventory of apples in Gansu decreased significantly. The quality of Huaniu apples declined, and the price was weak. The price of high - quality Fuji apples was basically stable [23]. - Shandong: The trading of inventory Fuji apples in Qixia was light. The price of high - quality goods was stable, and general goods were priced according to quality. In Yiyuan, the trading was also light, and the price was weak [23]. - Shaanxi: The trading of inventory Fuji apples in Luochuan was stable, and the price changed little. In Weinan, the quality of inventory Fuji apples was uneven, and the price was chaotic [24]. - Shanxi: The trading of inventory Fuji apples in Yuncheng Linyi was stable. The remaining quantity of film - bag Fuji was small, and the trading of paper - plus - film apples was good [24]. - Liaoning: The local apple sales were smooth, mainly general goods from fruit farmers, and high - quality goods were sold in small quantities [33]. 3.3 Inventory Situation - As of March 18, 2026, the inventory of apples in the main producing areas' cold storage was 4.6843 million tons, a decrease of 312,900 tons from the previous week. - Shandong: The storage capacity ratio was 38.39%, a decrease of 1.66% from the previous week. The trading of high - quality goods increased slightly [32]. - Shaanxi: The storage capacity ratio was 36.25%, a decrease of 2.96% from the previous week. The trading of high - quality goods was active in the first half of the week and slowed down in the second half [32]. - Other Areas: The storage capacity ratio in Gansu was 24.48%, a decrease of 2.73% from the previous week; in Shanxi, it was 24.38%, a decrease of 1.76% from the previous week; in Liaoning, it was 41.66%, a decrease of 2.79% from the previous week [32][33]. 3.4 Sales Area Situation - The number of early - morning arrivals at the Guangdong wholesale market increased slightly last week. The actual transactions were priced according to quality. The current arrival volume was normal, and there was no obvious backlog in the transit warehouse. The willingness of second - and third - level wholesalers to purchase was not high, and the sales were slow with chaotic prices [37]. 3.5 Apple Storage Profit Analysis - The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants in Qixia last week was about 0.35 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous week [41]. 3.6 Key Fruit Market - As of the 12th week of 2026, the average wholesale price of six kinds of fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 7.89 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.11 yuan/kg from the 11th week. Most of the six kinds of fruits showed a downward trend, with the exception of Kyoho grapes, whose wholesale price increased by 0.01 yuan/kg [44]. 3.7 Export Situation - According to customs data, the export volume of fresh apples in December 2025 was about 156,500 tons, a 28.63% increase from the previous month and a 26.76% increase from the same period last year. The fourth quarter and the first quarter of the following year are the peak export seasons for apples. It is expected that the export volume of fresh apples in the first quarter of 2026 will increase quarter - on - quarter, which is beneficial to the recovery of apple demand [49]. 3.8 Production Statistics - In 2025, the domestic apple production was 34.3142 million tons, a 6.01% decrease from the previous year. Shaanxi's production was 7.6006 million tons, a 6.97% decrease; Shandong's was 7.246 million tons, a 16.54% decrease; Gansu's was 3.5457 million tons, a 4.45% decrease; Henan's was 2.469 million tons, a 9% increase; Shanxi's was 3.045 million tons, an 11% increase; Liaoning's was 2.1561 million tons, a 3% increase; and other areas' was 8.2518 million tons, a 6.68% decrease [51][54]. 3.9 Market Outlook - The apple futures price is expected to maintain a volatile and upward trend in the short term. The low inventory and tight supply of high - quality goods provide strong support for apple prices. In the short term, apple prices will remain polarized, with high - quality goods continuing to be strong, and some low - quality goods may be sold at discounted prices. With the upcoming Tomb - Sweeping Festival, downstream demand is expected to be boosted, accelerating inventory clearance. Next week, attention should be paid to the Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking situation, market trading atmosphere, merchants' replenishment situation, alternative fruit trading situation, and weather conditions in the main producing areas [55]. 3.10 Operation Strategy - Unilateral: Consider buying on dips. - Arbitrage: Consider buying the 2605 contract and selling the 2610 contract for positive arbitrage. - Options: Temporarily wait and see [57].