氧化铝过剩情况有所缓解，沪铝或震荡偏强运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - Aluminum prices are expected to show a volatile and slightly upward trend, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to wait and see for option contracts [3][32] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - As of last week, the price of the main contract AL2605 of Shanghai aluminum futures showed a downward trend, ranging from around 23,100 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 25,315 yuan/ton [7] 2. Macroeconomic Aspect - From January to February, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.3% year-on-year in real terms. In February, it increased by 0.83% month-on-month. From January to February, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 527.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year-on-year. In February, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 0.39% month-on-month [2][11][31] 3. Supply and Demand Situation - In February 2026, the alumina supply surplus was 80,000 tons, compared with a supply gap of 130,000 tons last month. From a seasonal perspective, the current supply - demand balance is at a relatively high level compared with the past five years. In January 2026, the cumulative surplus of electrolytic aluminum supply was 218,200 tons. From a seasonal perspective, the current supply - demand balance is at an average level compared with the past five years [16] 4. Inventory Situation - As of March 20, 2026, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 452,044 tons, an increase of 35,619 tons from the previous week. As of March 19, 2026, the LME aluminum inventory was 432,725 tons, a decrease of 3,900 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 36.57%. As of March 19, 2026, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 1.299 million tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from the previous day [22] 5. Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis - The import volume of bauxite has decreased, and the global alumina supply surplus has eased. The global supply and demand of electrolytic aluminum are basically balanced. The in - production capacity of alumina in China has been continuously decreasing, and the alumina operating rate has declined. The electrolytic aluminum capacity in China is approaching full - load operation, and the in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum has been slowly increasing. The Shanghai aluminum inventory has continued to rise significantly, and the inventory level is at the highest in recent years. The LME aluminum inventory has decreased significantly, and the inventory level remains at a relatively low level in recent years [2][31] 6. Future Outlook - Aluminum prices are expected to show a volatile and slightly upward trend, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to wait and see for option contracts [3][32]