镍：宏观与矿端矛盾分歧，短线多空博弈加剧，不锈钢：海外宏观压制，现实成本支撑

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The nickel market shows a contradiction between macro and mine - end factors, leading to intensified short - term long - short games. The stainless - steel market is suppressed by overseas macro factors but supported by real - world costs [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 133,160, with a change of 1,610 compared to T - 1. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 14,065, up 210 from T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 537,401, and that of the stainless - steel main contract is 326,125 [1] - Industrial Chain Data: The price of 1 imported nickel is 134,500, with a change of 3,050 compared to T - 1. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 1,084, down 3 from T - 1. The price of 304/2B roll - rough edge (Wuxi) is 14,300, up 100 from T - 1 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Policy Changes: The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, considering cobalt as an independent commodity and levying royalties. The ESDM aims to complete the approval of the 2026 mining work plan and budget (RKAB) by the end of March 2026 [1][7] - Production and Operation: Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala in a few months. PT Weda Bay Nickel's production quota is cut by 70% compared to 2025. The ESDM estimates Indonesia's 2026 nickel ore production to be about 209 million tons, including 540,000 tons of ferronickel and 92,000 tons of nickel ice [2][4][6] - Accidents and Sanctions: A landslide occurred in the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, causing one death and suspending operations in the affected area. Four nickel - mining companies in North Maluku Province, Indonesia, were sanctioned [5][6] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is also 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8]