格林大华期货早盘提示：三油-20260323

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For the vegetable oil sector, due to the Fed's firm attitude and weakened rate - cut expectations, commodities weakened overall on March 20th, with the vegetable oil sector showing a differentiated trend. Palm oil led the decline under pressure, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil fluctuated at high levels. It's recommended to exit long positions in oils and hold short positions in palm oil, and there is also room for decline in soybean oil and rapeseed oil later [2]. - For the two - meal sector, on March 20th, domestic double - meals showed a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The market was worried about the postponement of the US President's visit to China and the subsequent Sino - US economic and trade relations, betting on the rise of long - term double - meals. It's recommended to operate the near - and long - month contracts of double - meals differently, with short positions in near - month contracts and long positions in long - month contracts [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Vegetable Oil Market (1) Market Review - On March 20th, the Fed's attitude weakened rate - cut expectations, causing overall weakness in commodities and a differentiated trend in the vegetable oil sector. Palm oil led the decline, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil fluctuated at high levels. For example, the main soybean oil contract Y2605 closed at 8,628 yuan/ton, up 0.14% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 398 lots; the main palm oil contract P2605 closed at 9,718 yuan/ton, down 0.80% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 11,646 lots; the main rapeseed oil contract OI2605 closed at 9,876 yuan/ton, up 0.22% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 2,919 lots [2]. (2) Important Information - On March 19th, NYMEX crude oil futures closed down, with the US oil main contract down 0.19% at $96.14/barrel and the Brent oil main contract up 1.18% at $108.65/barrel. Israel said it would suspend air strikes on Iranian energy facilities [2]. - A study showed that Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 51 million tons, with a forecast range of 46 - 56 million tons, a downward adjustment of less than 1% from the previous forecast. Short - term production may decline due to plantation workers returning home for Eid al - Fitr, but is expected to recover after the holiday [2]. - The Abiove said the Brazilian government should allow more biodiesel to be blended into regular diesel to cope with the energy price crisis. The Brazilian Energy Minister called for more tests before increasing the current legally mandated 15% biodiesel blending ratio [2]. - On March 19th, the CPC reported that La Nina is still ongoing, expected to turn into an ENSO neutral state next month, and likely to remain neutral from May to July 2026. El Nino may form from June to August 2026 and last until the end of 2026 [2]. - The Malaysian MPOB report showed that the inventory at the end of February decreased by 3.94% to 2.7 million tons compared with the previous month; production decreased by 18.55% month - on - month to 1.28 million tons, and exports decreased by 22.48% month - on - month to 1.13 million tons [2]. - SGS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 15 were 443,812 tons, a 12.7% increase compared with February 1 - 15. Exports to China were 39,000 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons compared with the same period last month [2]. - As of the end of the 11th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.0557 million tons, a weekly increase of 9,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.46%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.49% [2][3]. (3) Market Logic - Overseas, the global financial market fluctuated sharply overnight, with the Dow, Nasdaq, and precious metals falling sharply, triggering a liquidity crisis and a strong global recession expectation. US soybean oil was under pressure at high levels. In Malaysia, palm oil markets were closed for Eid al - Fitr, and prices were strong the day before the holiday, but surrounding vegetable oils weakened [3]. - For soybean oil in China, some factories have shut down, and the upcoming end - of - month shutdown wave has some support for the futures market. However, it is still the traditional off - season for demand, and the overseas macro - recession expectation is more negative than the shutdown support [3]. - For palm oil, although the data of lower production in the first half of the month on the production side provided short - term support to the market, with the gradual slowdown of exports and the potential negative impact of increased production after Eid al - Fitr, crude palm oil futures are still under pressure to fall [3]. - For rapeseed oil, the domestic vegetable oil market has shown obvious signs of stagnant growth and is still at risk of a corrective decline. In the short term, it will continue to be affected by the Middle East situation and maintain a wide - range volatile adjustment trend. Spot trading in rapeseed oil has been continuously light, and it is difficult for the market to pick up goods, with most oil mills delivering to reserve depots [3]. (4) Trading Strategy - In the single - sided market, exit long positions in oils, hold short positions in palm oil. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil are in a volatile state and have room for decline. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts, such as the Y2605 contract with a resistance level of 9,300 and a support level of 8,048 [3]. 2. Two - Meal Market (1) Market Review - On March 20th, domestic double - meals showed a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 3,029 yuan/ton, down 0.43% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 78,358 lots; the main rapeseed meal contract RM2605 closed at 2,423 yuan/ton, down 0.82% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 8,298 lots [3]. (2) Important Information - The NOPA's February soybean crushing volume is expected to reach a record high for the month, with 9 analysts predicting an average of 202.725 million bushels [4]. - Due to the US and Israel's attacks on Iran, the geopolitical tension in the Middle East has intensified, and the soybean exports of Brazil and the US may decline in the next few weeks. The risk of rising shipping and insurance costs is increasing, posing a potential threat to the soybean export prospects of Brazil and the US [4]. - Chinese and US economic officials held a "very stable" agricultural trade talk in Paris on the 15th, and China still promised to buy 25 million tons of US soybeans annually in the next three years [4]. - ANEC reported that Brazil's soybean exports in March 2026 are estimated to be 16.09 million tons, a 2% increase compared with March 2025 [4]. - As of the end of the 11th week of 2026, China's imported soybean inventory was 5.8215 million tons, a decrease of 284,700 tons from the previous week; the domestic soybean meal inventory was 623,500 tons, a decrease of 143,500 tons from the previous week [4]. (3) Market Logic - Overseas, US soybeans are testing the 20 - day moving average. If they cannot break through effectively, there is a risk of new declines. For soybean meal, although the import cost has slightly decreased, the decline in the futures market is limited due to the end - of - month shutdown wave and the strong spot market. In the short term, the main contract of Dalian soybean meal will fluctuate in the range of 3,000 - 3,100 yuan [4]. - For rapeseed meal, the aquaculture season has not arrived, and the market trading volume has been light, with mainly rigid - demand purchases. The spot price fluctuates with the market, and the basis quotation is adjusted in a narrow range [4]. (4) Trading Strategy - Operate the near - and long - month contracts of double - meals differently, with short positions in near - month contracts and long positions in long - month contracts. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts, such as the M2605 contract with a resistance level of 3,278 and a support level of 2,710 [4].