观点与策略：国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属-20260323

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides daily research and analysis on precious metals and base metals futures, including gold, silver, copper, zinc, lead, tin, aluminum, alumina, cast aluminum alloy, platinum, palladium, nickel, and stainless steel. It analyzes the fundamentals, macro and industry news of each metal, and gives the trend strength of each metal [2][4][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Price and Market Performance: The prices of Shanghai gold futures, gold T+D, Comex gold, and London gold spot all declined. For example, the closing price of Shanghai gold 2602 was 1,062.00, with a daily decline of 4.63%, and the night - session closing price was 1026.74, with a decline of 4.99% [4]. - Macro and Industry News: Geopolitical conflicts erupted. Trump limited Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours and threatened to destroy its power plants. The US was planning to seize Iran's "nuclear reserves", and Israel's Dimona was "directly hit" by an Iranian missile [4]. - Trend Strength: Gold trend strength is 0 [6]. Silver - Price and Market Performance: The prices of Shanghai silver futures, silver T+D, Comex silver, and London silver spot all dropped significantly. For instance, the closing price of Shanghai silver 2602 was 18023, with a daily decline of 9.69%, and the night - session closing price was 17660.00, with a decline of 6.07% [4]. - Trend Strength: Silver trend strength is 0 [6]. Copper - Price and Market Performance: The price of Shanghai copper futures rose slightly during the day but fell at night, while the price of LME copper declined. The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 94,740, with a daily increase of 0.34%, and the night - session closing price was 93210, with a decline of 1.61% [7]. - Macro and Industry News: The US might send thousands of soldiers to the Middle East, and Zambia aimed to triple its copper production by 2031. After a worker death accident, Rio Tinto suspended the operation of its Kennecott copper mine in Utah. China's refined copper production from January to February increased by 9% year - on - year, and the import volume of scrap copper in February decreased [7][9]. - Trend Strength: Copper trend strength is - 1 [9]. Zinc - Price and Market Performance: The price of Shanghai zinc futures rose slightly, while the price of LME zinc declined. The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22935, with a daily increase of 1.01% [11]. - Macro and Industry News: China's Ministry of Finance planned to allocate 250 billion yuan to support the replacement of consumer goods with new ones. Trump limited Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, and Iran threatened to counter - attack [12]. - Trend Strength: Zinc trend strength is 0 [13]. Lead - Price and Market Performance: The prices of Shanghai lead futures and LME lead both declined. The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16290, with a daily decline of 0.76% [14]. - Macro and Industry News: The US might send troops to the Middle East, and China's 3 - month LPR remained unchanged for the tenth consecutive month [15]. - Trend Strength: Lead trend strength is 0 [15]. Tin - Price and Market Performance: The prices of Shanghai tin futures and LME tin both declined. The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 342,480, with a daily decline of 3.25% [18]. - Macro and Industry News: Trump limited Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, and China's central bank governor said to maintain liquidity [20]. - Trend Strength: Tin trend strength is 0 [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price and Market Performance: The prices of Shanghai aluminum futures, LME aluminum, Shanghai alumina futures, and aluminum alloy futures all showed different degrees of decline. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 24020, down 160 from the previous day [21]. - Macro and Industry News: US military experts analyzed the risks of seizing Iran's Kharg Island, and the global natural gas supply was on the verge of a cliff [23]. - Trend Strength: Aluminum trend strength is 0, alumina trend strength is 1, and aluminum alloy trend strength is 0 [23]. Platinum and Palladium - Price and Market Performance: The prices of platinum and palladium futures and spot showed different degrees of decline. For example, the closing price of platinum futures 2606 was 509.75, with a daily increase of 0.55%, while the price of New York platinum main - continuous (previous day) was 1920.10, with a decline of 2.48% [25]. - Macro and Industry News: The Middle East situation caused an Indian "gas shortage", and there was an oil shortage in some parts of Australia [27]. - Trend Strength: Platinum trend strength is - 2, and palladium trend strength is - 2 [28]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Market Performance: The prices of Shanghai nickel futures and stainless steel futures showed different trends. The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 133,160, and the closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 14,065 [30]. - Macro and Industry News: Indonesia planned to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore, and some nickel mines in different regions had production - related events such as production cuts, suspensions, and sanctions [30][31][34]. - Trend Strength: Nickel trend strength is 0, and stainless steel trend strength is 0 [37].