观点与策略：国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Palm oil: Oil price disturbances continue, and it operates in a high - level shock [2]. - Soybean oil: The driving force of the soybean system is not significant, and the upside space is limited [2]. - Soybean meal: The U.S. soybeans closed lower overnight, and the Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate [2]. - Soybean: The market sentiment is stable, and the futures price may fluctuate [2]. - Corn: It operates in a shock [2]. - Sugar: The raw sugar continues to gain momentum and rises in a shock [2]. - Cotton: Attention should be paid to the impact of external markets [2]. - Eggs: Weak shock [2]. - Pigs: The weight - reduction drive is approaching, and the near - term pressure increases [2]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the macro - impact [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: Palm oil's daytime closing price was 9,718 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.80%, and the night - time closing price was 9,724 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.06%. Soybean oil's daytime closing price was 8,628 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.14%, and the night - time closing price was 8,640 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.14%. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,750 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,940 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [4]. - News: From March 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 1,191,962 tons, a 38.06% increase from the same period last month. In the 12th week of 2026 (March 14 - 20), the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 1.9905 million tons, an increase of 21,100 tons from the previous week and 61,000 tons lower than the estimated volume, with an actual startup rate of 54.81%. China's soybean imports from the U.S. from January - February decreased by 83.7% year - on - year, while imports from Brazil increased by 82.8% and from Argentina increased significantly [5][6]. - Trend Intensity: Palm oil trend intensity is 1, and soybean oil trend intensity is 1 [7]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - Fundamentals: DCE soybean 2605's daytime closing price was 4,810 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan (- 0.46%), and the night - time closing price was 4,778 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan (- 0.04%); DCE soybean meal 2605's daytime closing price was 3,029 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan (- 0.79%), and the night - time closing price was 3,012 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan (- 0.59%) [8]. - News: On March 20, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to pre - weekend long - position profit - taking. The meeting between Chinese and U.S. leaders has been postponed to mid - May, making the future soybean procurement outlook uncertain. China's soybean imports from the U.S. from January - February decreased by 84% year - on - year, while imports from Brazil increased by 83%. The weather in the U.S. is warm and dry, which is ideal for spring plowing. Argentina's soybean crop excellent rate reached 38%, up 3 percentage points from the previous week [8][10]. - Trend Intensity: Soybean meal trend intensity is 0, and soybean trend intensity is 0 [10]. Corn - Fundamentals: The closing price of C2605 was 2,387 yuan/ton, up 0.13%, and the night - time closing price was 2,406 yuan/ton, up 0.80%; the closing price of C2607 was 2,392 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the night - time closing price was 2,407 yuan/ton, up 0.63%. The spot price of Jinzhou's flat - warehouse corn was 2,395 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [12]. - News: The price of northern corn shipped in bulk decreased by 5 yuan/ton, and the price of containerized first - class grain remained unchanged. The price of corn in Northeast China decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and the price in North China fluctuated. The state will increase the minimum purchase price of wheat to 800,000 tons on March 25 [13]. - Trend Intensity: Corn trend intensity is 0 [14]. Sugar - Fundamentals: The raw sugar price was 15.52 cents/pound, up 0.1. The mainstream spot price was 5,430 yuan/ton, unchanged. The futures main - contract price was 5,439 yuan/ton, up 22 [15]. - News: Crude oil fluctuates upward, and sugar is linked to crude oil through ethanol, attracting continuous capital attention. As of March 15, India's sugar production in the 25/26 season increased by 10% year - on - year. China's sugar imports from January - February increased by 440,000 tons. CAOC expects China's sugar production in the 25/26 season to be 11.7 million tons, consumption to be 15.7 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons. ISO expects a global sugar surplus of 1.22 million tons in the 25/26 season [15][16]. - Trend Intensity: Sugar trend intensity is 1 [17]. Cotton - Fundamentals: The closing price of CF2605 was 15,215 yuan/ton, up 0.43%, and the night - time closing price was 15,305 yuan/ton, up 0.59%; the closing price of CY2605 was 21,475 yuan/ton, up 0.89%, and the night - time closing price was 21,570 yuan/ton, up 0.44%. The price of ICE U.S. cotton 5 was 67.34 cents/pound, down 0.55% [19]. - News: The cotton spot basis is generally stable. The cotton yarn market price is stable with a slight decline, and the overall trading is average. ICE cotton futures fell by 0.55% last Friday due to a lack of new fundamental upward drivers and concerns about global cotton consumption prospects [19][20]. - Trend Intensity: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [22]. Eggs - Fundamentals: The closing price of egg 2604 was 3,299 yuan/500 kg, up 0.55%, and the closing price of egg 2605 was 3,409 yuan/500 kg, up 0.71%. The spot price of eggs in Liaoning was 3.20 yuan/jin, in Hebei was 3.07 yuan/jin, in Shanxi was 3.25 yuan/jin, and in Hubei was 3.51 yuan/jin [23]. - Trend Intensity: Egg trend intensity is - 1 [24]. Pigs - Fundamentals: The spot price of pigs in Henan was 9,930 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; in Sichuan was 9,850 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton; in Guangdong was 10,510 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan/ton. The futures price of pig 2605 was 10,220 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan/ton; pig 2607 was 11,280 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton; pig 2609 was 12,575 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton [27]. - Trend Intensity: Pig trend intensity is - 2 [28]. Peanuts - Fundamentals: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; Henan Baisha general peanuts was 7,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; Xingcheng small Japanese peanuts was 8,760 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; Henan Kaifeng large - grain peanuts was 8,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of PK604 was 8,096 yuan/ton, down 0.12%, and PK605 was 8,188 yuan/ton, down 0.15% [30]. - News: In the spot market, the prices in most regions are stable, with limited supply and general trading [31]. - Trend Intensity: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [32].