动力煤：枪已上膛，择时而发

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In early 2026, the coal market faces external disturbances such as tightened supply - side policies in Indonesia and the release of coal's energy attribute due to the Middle - East conflict. Currently, the impact on domestic coal prices is limited because of stable domestic supply and the off - season. It's expected that from the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter, coal prices are more likely to rise due to factors like downstream replenishment, peak summer demand, and supply - side safety production. However, factors like the duration of the Middle - East conflict and the persistence of Indonesia's supply - side policies need to be continuously tracked [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Coal Supply - Side Changes - Indonesia, the world's largest exporter of thermal coal, significantly tightens its coal supply - side policies. In 2026, the proposed coal production quota (RKAB) is about 6 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.37% compared to 2025, and a 24% decrease compared to the actual 2025 production. It's estimated that coal exports may decrease by 120 - 150 million tons (30% - 40% decline). Also, Indonesia started levying a 1% - 5% stepped export tax on coal exports from January 1, 2026 [6][7][11] - The impact of Indonesia's export tightening is initially evident. China's coal imports in February 2026 were 30.94 million tons, a 33% month - on - month and 10% year - on - year decrease. The import volume in March is expected to remain low, mainly due to the slow RKAB approval process, the Ramadan, and continuous rainfall in some areas in Indonesia. Additionally, the sharp rise in international shipping costs due to the Middle - East conflict has increased the cost of imported coal [14] Impact of the Middle - East Conflict on Coal - The Middle - East conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has led to a sharp increase in international oil and gas prices. Brent crude oil once approached $120 per barrel, and the European TTF natural gas price doubled. This has activated the energy attribute of coal, and coal can replace oil and gas in the power and chemical industries. The substitution logic has been transmitted to the overseas spot market, and the Newcastle thermal coal price is strengthening [15][18] Domestic Coal Market Situation - Thanks to China's efforts in energy security, domestic coal supply is relatively stable. In January - February 2026, China's cumulative coal production was 763 million tons, with a daily average output of 1.293 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 2.37%. As of the reporting date, the capacity utilization rate of sample mines has recovered to 91% and is still rising [27] - Currently, the domestic coal market is in the seasonal off - season. With stable supply and low demand, factors such as Indonesia's supply tightening and the rise of overseas coal prices have not affected the domestic spot coal market. The price of thermal coal at northern ports shows seasonal fluctuations [30] Future Price Outlook - In the traditional off - season from March to May, objective factors are not conducive to price increases. Historically, there were only three years (2016, 2021, 2022) with significant off - season price increases under specific circumstances. From the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter, due to downstream replenishment, peak summer demand, and supply - side safety production, coal prices are more likely to rise, especially this year with the supply contraction of major coal - exporting countries and high oil and gas prices [36]