观点与策略：国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: There are contradictions and differences between the macro - environment and the mining end, and the short - term long - short game intensifies [2][4]. - Stainless steel: Overseas macro factors exert pressure, while the actual cost provides support [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: Attention should be paid to the lower support level [2][12]. - Industrial silicon: The cost is on the rise [2][17]. - Polysilicon: The spot price is falling [2][18]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 133,160, with a change of 1,610 compared to T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 14,065, with a change of 210 compared to T - 1. Other data such as trading volume, prices of related products, and spreads are also presented [4]. - Macro and Industry News: The Indonesian government will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore in early 2026, considering cobalt as an independent commodity for royalty collection; a Swiss company plans to restart its nickel - mining business in Guatemala; the approved nickel - ore production quota in Indonesia is between 260 million and 270 million tons; some companies' production and operations are affected by various factors such as landslides, fuel shortages, and sanctions [4][5][7][8][9]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11]. Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the 2605 contract is 143,860, with a change of 1,260 compared to T - 1. Data on trading volume, open interest, basis, and prices of related lithium - salt products are also provided [14]. - Macro and Industry News: Xiaomi's new - generation SU7 locked 15,000 orders in 34 minutes after its release; in 2025, China implemented 190 vehicle recalls, involving 6.846 million vehicles, with a decline in both the number of recalls and the number of affected vehicles compared to the previous year [15][16]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [16]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Si2605 contract is 8,455, with a change of 170 compared to T - 1; the closing price of the PS2605 contract is 37,765, with a change of - 785 compared to T - 1. Data on trading volume, open interest, basis, prices, profits, and inventories of industrial silicon and polysilicon are presented [18]. - Macro and Industry News: In February 2026, China's industrial silicon exports were 47,520.111 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 7.53% and a month - on - month decrease of 27.44%. The cumulative export volume from January to February was 113,008 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 16.88% [19]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0 (neutral), and the trend intensity of polysilicon is - 1 (weakly bearish) [20].