哈原工：天然铀龙头有望受益全球补库周期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $100 per share [7][5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the global inventory replenishment cycle, transitioning from destocking to restocking, which is anticipated to tighten supply-demand dynamics in the uranium sector [1]. - The company's uranium production and sales are in line with expectations, with a projected increase in production for FY 2026 [2]. - Kazakhstan's nuclear energy plans are entering a new phase, enhancing the company's strategic position as a key player in uranium supply [3]. - The report emphasizes the dual resonance of rising demand from nuclear power revival and strategic reserves driving the uranium price upward [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY 2025, the company reported revenues of 1,803 billion KZT, a decrease of 1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 570 billion KZT, down 35% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s FY 2025 uranium production was 25,839 tons, an increase of 11% year-on-year, with sales prices decreasing by 6% [2]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for FY 2026 is 771 billion KZT, reflecting a growth of 35% year-on-year [5]. Production and Cost Outlook - The company expects uranium production for FY 2026 to be between 27,500 and 29,000 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.4% to 12.2% [2]. - The C1 cash cost is projected to rise to between $23.5 and $25.0 per pound, an increase of 30.1% to 38.4% year-on-year, primarily due to rising sulfur costs and tax rate increases [2]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the uranium market is currently experiencing a period of increased demand due to the revival of nuclear power and strategic stockpiling, which is expected to drive prices higher [4]. - Historical data indicates that when uranium procurement matches or slightly exceeds demand, prices can reach significant highs, suggesting a positive outlook for future price movements [4].