甲醇周报：地缘冲突风险仍在，甲醇或继续偏强运行-20260323

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main factor boosting methanol is the geopolitical conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, with the focus on the navigation issue of the Strait of Hormuz. As long as the navigation problem is not substantially resolved, crude oil and methanol will continue to be boosted. Methanol is likely to continue its strong performance in the short - term, and long - position operations in methanol futures and buying methanol call options are recommended [8][9] - The price increase of methanol has led to a simultaneous increase in domestic supply and demand. The continuous geopolitical tension and the significant reduction in methanol imports will continue to be the most important factors boosting methanol in the future [7][32] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran was the main factor boosting methanol. The methanol futures continued to rise significantly. By the Friday afternoon close, the weighted methanol price reached 3,053 yuan/ton, a 10.5% increase from the previous week. The port methanol inventory decreased, supporting the coastal market. The international situation led to limited international shipping capacity and poor import expectations, strongly boosting the domestic methanol market. The price in Jiangsu ranged from 2,790 to 3,180 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong from 2,800 to 3,200 yuan/ton. The inland methanol market also increased, but the increase was less than that in the port market. The price in Ordos North Line ranged from 2,160 to 2,330 yuan/ton, and the downstream Dongying receiving price ranged from 2,505 to 2,555 yuan/ton [12] 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis - Production: Last week, China's methanol production was 2,074,815 tons, an increase of 53,680 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 92.87%, a 2.65% increase from the previous week [14] - Downstream: As of March 19, the capacity utilization rate of methanol downstream varieties showed different trends. The olefin industry's start - up increased, with the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region reaching 40.23%, a 1.28 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate was 5.49%, and it increased. The acetic acid capacity utilization rate remained flat, and the methane chloride capacity utilization rate slightly decreased [17][18] - Inventory: As of March 18, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 485,400 tons, a decrease of 37,700 tons from the previous period, a 7.21% decrease. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 279,300 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons from the previous period, a 5.26% increase. The port sample inventory was 1.2617 million tons, a decrease of 51,100 tons from the previous period, a 3.89% decrease [19][23] - Profit: Last week, the raw material price increase was weaker than the methanol price increase, so the methanol production profit further strengthened. The weekly average profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia in the northwest was 128.30 yuan/ton, a 270.81% increase; in Shandong, it was 247.30 yuan/ton, a 128.70% increase; in Shanxi, it was 200.90 yuan/ton, a 477.30% increase; the weekly average profit of coke - oven gas - to - methanol in Hebei was 442.00 yuan/ton, a 22.44% increase; and the weekly average profit of natural - gas - to - methanol in the southwest was 146.00 yuan/ton, a 404.17% increase [25][26] 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - Supply: Next week, more domestic methanol devices are expected to resume production than to be under maintenance. It is estimated that China's methanol production will be about 2.0848 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 93.32%, with an increase in production [28] - Downstream demand: The MTO industry's start - up rate is expected to increase slightly. The dimethyl ether supply is expected to increase, and the capacity utilization rate may increase. The acetic acid capacity utilization rate is expected to remain flat. The formaldehyde supply is expected to increase, and the capacity utilization rate may increase. The methane chloride capacity utilization rate is expected to decrease [29][30][31][32] - Inventory: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 481,900 tons, a decrease from the previous period. The port methanol inventory may continue to decrease, and attention should be paid to the change in the提货 volume [32]