途虎-W：门店网络快速扩张，静待毛利率优化-20260323

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The gross margin is under short-term pressure but does not alter the long-term trend of profit margin improvement [2] - The company is expected to maintain revenue growth with projected revenues of RMB 184.59 billion, RMB 204.13 billion, and RMB 223.13 billion for 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 12%, 11%, and 9% [9] - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to be RMB 7.01 billion, RMB 8.32 billion, and RMB 9.91 billion for the same years, with a year-on-year growth of 0.1%, 18.7%, and 19.1% respectively [9] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at RMB 16,462 million, an increase of 11.5% year-on-year, with a gross profit of RMB 3,968 million, up 5.9% year-on-year [4] - Adjusted net profit for 2025 is expected to be RMB 700 million, reflecting a 12.2% increase year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 4.3% [4] - The company plans to expand its store network, with a target of 8,008 stores by the end of 2025, representing a 16.5% increase year-on-year [9] - The average revenue per store is expected to decrease by 4% year-on-year in 2025 [9] Market Data - The current stock price is HKD 13.65, with a market capitalization of HKD 11,283 million [1][6] - The stock has traded within a range of HKD 13.51 to HKD 20.90 over the past 52 weeks [6] Valuation - The target price is set at HKD 19.26, based on a 20x PE ratio for the adjusted net profit in 2026 [9] - The company’s PE ratio is projected to decrease from 28.41 in 2025 to 13.73 by 2028 [4][10]