伊朗大动脉受挫，甲醇突破3000

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on methanol is "strongly bullish" in the short - term, with a trading strategy of "bullish" for single - side trading and "wait - and - see" for arbitrage [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the core investment logic of methanol revolves around geopolitical drivers and a tight supply - demand balance, showing an overall strong trend. Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, driving the resonance of energy and chemical products to strengthen. Coupled with the expected contraction of import supply, it forms the core positive support. The supply - demand side presents a pattern of "tight supply and stable demand". The inventories at ports and inland areas are decreasing simultaneously, and the rigid demand from the olefin sector supports the demand, further strengthening the fundamental support. However, the downstream shows resistance to high prices, and transactions are mainly small - volume, which limits the price increase. In the short term, it is necessary to focus on the evolution of the geopolitical situation, the volume of imported arrivals, and the restocking rhythm of the downstream. It is recommended to adopt a range - bound trading strategy and be cautious about chasing high prices, while closely monitoring the arbitrage window and inventory change signals [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - This week, the methanol supply side shows a pattern of a marginal increase in domestic production, tight imported supplies at a low level, and continuous inventory reduction in all links. The actual market - circulating supplies are tight, and the support from the supply side to the market is continuously strengthening. Domestically, the scale of restarted methanol plants far exceeds the loss from maintenance during the same period. The operating loads of mainstream production processes such as coal - based and gas - based are steadily rising, and the overall industry capacity utilization rate has increased month - on - month, with a slight increase in domestic supply. The arbitrage window between the production areas and the coastal areas remains open, the inventory of inland producers is being rapidly reduced, and the volume of pending orders is steadily increasing, with domestic supplies flowing smoothly to the coastal market. In terms of imports, although the volume of arrivals has slightly recovered this period, affected by geopolitical conflicts and limited international shipping capacity, the overall arrival scale remains at a low level. Coupled with the shortage of international supplies, there is a strong expectation of import contraction in the future, making it difficult to effectively supplement the domestic market. The ports continue to experience inventory reduction due to insufficient arrivals, further strengthening the tight supply pattern [2] 3.2 Demand - This week, the methanol demand side shows a pattern of stable rigid demand from the main downstream sectors and significant differentiation among traditional downstream sectors. The overall demand has slightly improved marginally, providing basic support to the market. However, the terminal demand is weak in the high - price environment, and the substantial driving effect is limited. The olefin sector is the core support on the demand side. This week, the restart and capacity increase of methanol - to - olefin plants are progressing simultaneously, the industry's operating level is steadily rising, the demand for externally - purchased methanol is continuously released, and the procurement rhythm is stable, forming a stable consumption of both inland and port supplies, which is the most important supporting force on the methanol demand side. The traditional downstream sectors show overall differentiation. The operating loads of industries such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and glacial acetic acid have increased, mainly driven by cost factors, but the terminals have low acceptance of high - price raw materials and only maintain rigid procurement, with limited actual transaction volume. The demand in industries such as chloromethane has weakened, the operating load has declined, and the consumption capacity of methanol has also decreased. Overall, the increase in demand is mainly concentrated in the main olefin sector, and the demand from traditional downstream sectors still appears weak [2] 3.3 Inventory - This week, the overall methanol inventory shows a pattern of narrow inventory reduction at the main coastal ports with significant regional differentiation and continuous decline in inland factory inventories. The overall social inventory has decreased steadily, providing bottom - line support to the spot market. At the coastal ports, the total methanol inventory has slightly decreased, and the inventory reduction rhythm is generally slow, with the inventory scale still at a medium - to - high level compared to the same period in history. There are prominent regional differences. The inventory reduction in the South China and Fujian regions is obvious, the inventory in the Jiangsu region remains basically stable, and the inventory in the Zhejiang region has slightly increased due to concentrated arrivals. The available circulating supplies at the ports are generally tight, and the提货 rhythms vary significantly among different regions. In the inland market, the inventory of producers continues to decline, the factory inventories in the main production areas generally decrease, and the volume of pending orders is steadily increasing. The core driving factor is that the arbitrage window between the inland and the coastal areas remains open, the supplies flow smoothly to the coastal market, and coupled with the continuous consumption of rigid demand from the downstream, the inventory pressure in the inland areas is continuously relieved [2] 3.4 Methanol Profit - This week, the profits of methanol and its industrial chain show a pattern of overall strengthening of upstream profitability and widespread pressure and differentiation among downstream sectors. The industry profits are generally concentrated in the upstream methanol production end. In terms of methanol's own profitability, the production - end profits have continued to rise significantly this week, and the profitability of all mainstream production processes has improved significantly. The core driving factor is the significant increase in the spot price of methanol, while the prices of raw materials such as coal and natural gas have fluctuated gently, and the increase in the cost side is far less than the increase in the methanol price. The profitability of coal - based methanol has increased significantly, the profitability of coke - oven gas - based methanol remains leading in the industry, and the natural - gas - based methanol has turned from loss to profit, with the overall production profitability of the industry improving comprehensively. On the downstream profit side, there are prominent differentiation characteristics. The rapid increase in the methanol price has brought heavy cost pressure. The losses of traditional downstream sectors such as formaldehyde and dimethyl ether have continued to expand, the profit margin of the main downstream MTO industry has significantly narrowed, and only a few varieties such as glacial acetic acid and MTBE have seen a slight increase in profitability. Overall, the cost - passing ability of the downstream to high - price raw materials is weak [2] 3.5 Politics - There are multiple geopolitical events. US President Trump posted on TruthSocial, threatening to destroy and paralyze Iran's power plants if Iran does not fully open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. At least one tanker operator has paid about $2 million to Iran for the right to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian military sources said that if the US carries out its threat of military aggression against Kharg Island, Iran will launch "unexpected" counter - attacks. Israeli media reported that Houthi rebels may join the battle early next week, and Iranian military sources mentioned that deterring other straits including the Bab - el - Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea is one of the options for the "Resistance Front" [2]