美联储放鹰，铜破位下行：沪铜周报-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro and micro factors resonate, causing a surge in market panic. Funds flee in a stampede, leading to a breakdown in Shanghai copper prices and testing key support levels [6]. - In the short - term, copper has broken through important psychological support, with the price center shifting downwards and more downside potential. It is recommended to wait for market sentiment to stabilize, avoid blind bottom - fishing or panic selling. Industrial buyers should purchase as needed, increase inventory replenishment during price corrections, and sellers should wait for price rebounds to hedge against upper pressure levels. In the long - term, due to tight copper ore supply, the explosion of green copper demand, national strategic resource security premiums, and intensified Sino - US competition, the long - term trend of copper should not be overly pessimistic [6]. - The focus range for Shanghai copper is [88000, 98000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [11500, 12500] US dollars/ton [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Viewpoint Summary - Core view: Macro and micro factors resonate, market panic soars, funds flee, and Shanghai copper breaks down to test support [6]. - Strategy outlook: Deterioration of the Middle East situation, inflation concerns reversing global monetary easing expectations, central banks like the Fed turning hawkish, a stronger US dollar suppressing copper prices, high inventory and lackluster peak season lead to a breakdown in copper prices. Wait for a stabilization opportunity. In the short - term, copper breaks through support, price center shifts down. In the long - term, don't be overly pessimistic about copper's trend [6]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - Middle East situation: The situation has escalated, inflation concerns have reversed monetary easing expectations, and the Fed has turned hawkish. On March 19, the federal funds rate remained at 3.50% - 3.75%. The 2026 full - year interest rate cut expectation has dropped from 2 - 3 times at the beginning of the year to only 1 time. The Fed has also raised the 2026 core PCE inflation forecast from 2.5% to 2.7%. The US 2 - month PPI exceeded expectations, with a month - on - month increase of 0.6% and a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. The Middle East conflict has led to an out - of - control surge in energy prices, and global central banks have turned hawkish [8][17]. - China's situation: Trump's visit to China has been postponed, LPR has remained unchanged, and February's macro data showed a weak recovery. Industrial added value increased by 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than expected. Social consumer goods retail sales increased by 4.8% year - on - year, also lower than expected. Fixed - asset investment increased by 3.9% year - on - year, with real estate investment decreasing by 8.5%. In February, new RMB loans were 1.45 trillion yuan, less than expected. The central bank's LPR remained unchanged, and the market's expectation of an interest rate cut was dashed [18][20]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis - Bullish factors: Increased disturbances in copper ore, low copper concentrate processing fees, calls to include copper concentrates in the storage system, anti - involution in the copper smelting industry at home and abroad, resilient demand in power and new energy vehicles, and rising national security and scarcity premiums for copper [27]. - Bearish factors: The Fed turning hawkish, the ECB and the Bank of England following suit, China's LPR remaining unchanged, market liquidity under pressure, the Middle East situation changing sharply, high market risk - aversion, rising crude oil prices, a stronger US dollar, concerns about the global economic outlook, high copper prices suppressing demand, excessive inventory accumulation at home and abroad, and a short - term decline in speculative enthusiasm [27]. - Copper price performance: As of March 20, LME copper was at 11835 US dollars/ton with a weekly increase of 0.7%, COMEX copper was at 530.2 cents/pound (equivalent to 11685 US dollars/ton), and Shanghai copper was at 94740 yuan/ton with a weekly increase of 5.55% [28]. - Supply: Copper concentrate supply is tight. In February 2026, China imported 2310000 physical tons of copper ore concentrates, a month - on - month decrease of 11.97% and a year - on - year increase of 5.84%. Copper concentrate processing fees are at a low level, and electrolytic copper production in February was 1.1424 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.69 tons. It is expected to increase to 1.1952 million tons in March [50][52]. - Demand: The "Golden March and Silver April" peak season has started slowly. Traditional sectors such as real estate and home appliances are dragging down demand, while emerging sectors such as power grid investment, new energy, and AI data centers are providing support [55]. - Inventory: As of March 19, domestic copper social inventory was 523100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 26600 tons. SHFE copper inventory was 411100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22300 tons, LME copper inventory was 342300 tons, a weekly increase of 30500 tons, and COMEX copper inventory was 588700 tons, a weekly decrease of 2841 tons [56]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - Macro: The Middle East situation has further deteriorated, inflation concerns have reversed global monetary easing expectations, central banks have turned hawkish, the US dollar has strengthened to suppress copper prices, Trump's visit to China has been postponed, and China's LPR has remained unchanged, resulting in market liquidity pressure [88]. - Fundamentals: Copper concentrate supply remains tight, processing fees are at a new low, electrolytic copper production decreased in February and is expected to increase in March, imports have decreased, and global copper inventory is high. After the sharp decline in copper prices this week, downstream procurement has been active, but terminal demand is lackluster [88]. - Strategy: In the short - term, wait for market sentiment to stabilize, avoid blind actions. In the long - term, be less pessimistic about copper's trend. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [88000, 98000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [11500, 12500] US dollars/ton [88].