锰硅：澳洲飓风再次来袭，关注实际影响力；硅铁：静态基本面改善，价格或联动上行：中辉期货铁合金周报-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 20, the spot price in Jiangsu was 6300 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract had a premium of about 100 yuan/ton. With steel mills' restocking, the short - term fundamentals have improved. Cost pressure supports the firmness of manganese ore prices. The price is expected to remain strong, and attention should be paid to the actual shipment of Australian manganese ore and the fuel supply and situation in South Africa [4] 3. Summary by Directory Market Overview - On Friday, affected by the news of the Australian hurricane and multiple factors, many near - month contracts of manganese - silicon futures rose by more than 5%, and the silicon - iron futures price also increased. The operating rates of both silicon products are at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years, and the demand has continued to increase month - on - month. Some steel mills' tender volume and price have both increased. As of March 20, the total inventory of silicon - manganese enterprises was 38.48 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.9 tons, significantly higher than the same - period level [3] Event Impact Pre - assessment - Given the months - long production and shipment interruption of the Groot Island mining area caused by the cyclone in 2024, if the path of this super typhoon is similar, its potential impact needs to be significantly increased. The core risk is not the short - term suspension of operations but the possible substantial damage to port infrastructure and its long repair cycle. If the shipment interruption is confirmed and continues, the market will quickly trade on the "supply gap" expectation. Near - month contracts will receive the strongest driving force, and the price may break through the current oscillation range. This event will resonate with the high shipping costs and South African supply risks, enhancing market bullish sentiment and volatility and attracting more speculative funds. If the demand for downstream silicon - manganese alloys remains weak, it may partially offset the positive effects of supply tightening, limiting the upside space of prices, but the downside support will be very strong due to cost and supply risks [3] Silicon - Manganese Market Price - From March 12 to March 19, 2026, the prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi, and Jiangsu increased by 20, 10, 50, 50, 50, and 100 yuan/ton respectively [8] Cost and Profit - The spot production costs in the northern and southern regions, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, and Guizhou changed by 3, 20, 5, 19, 8, and 8 yuan/ton respectively, and the spot profits changed by 92, 100, 15, - 9, 42, and 42 yuan/ton respectively [11] Supply - As of March 20, the total national silicon - manganese output was 19.62 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14 tons; the operating rate was 36.09%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05% [23] Demand - He Steel's silicon - manganese tender in January was priced at 5920 yuan/ton, with a purchase volume of 17,000 tons. There was no centralized purchase in February due to maintenance. Attention should be paid to the volume and price in March [28] Inventory - The total enterprise inventory was 38.48 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.9 tons [29] Manganese Ore Price - From March 12 to March 19, 2026, the prices of Comilog Gabon lump, South32 Australian lump, CML Australian lump, South32 semi - carbonate, and Fujax South African high - iron increased by 0.5, 0.3, 0.8, 0.3, and 0.1 yuan/ton - degree respectively [32] Manganese Ore Import - In 2025, China's cumulative manganese ore imports increased by 12.2% year - on - year. South Africa, Gabon, Australia, Ghana, and other countries accounted for 53.0%, 11.5%, 10.9%, 16.2%, and 8.3% respectively [36][37] Manganese Ore Inventory - As of March 13, the total national port inventory was 470.7 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1 tons [42] Silicon - Iron Market Price - From March 12 to March 19, 2026, the prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Gansu, Shaanxi, and Jiangsu changed by - 30, - 20, 0, 0, - 20, and 150 yuan/ton respectively [47] Cost and Profit - The spot costs in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Gansu, and Shaanxi remained unchanged, and the spot profits changed by - 30, - 20, 0, 0, and - 20 yuan/ton respectively [49][50] Supply - As of October 24, the weekly silicon - iron output was 11.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 tons; the operating rate was 35.56%, a week - on - week increase of 0.08% [60] Demand - He Steel's silicon - iron tender in March was priced at 5950 yuan/ton, a 190 - yuan increase from February; the purchase volume was 1155 tons, a decrease of 940 tons from February and 728 tons from the same period last year [65] Inventory - The total enterprise inventory was 5.94 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.18 tons [68]