玻璃：中游补库结束卖出虚值看涨

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The glass futures declined significantly last week. After the downstream restocking ended, production and sales gradually decreased, and the current situation suppressed prices. It is expected that the glass futures will fluctuate weakly, with a possibility of a small rebound. The report suggests selling out - of - the - money call options [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Investment Strategy: Sell Out - of - the - Money Call Options - Main Logic: The glass futures dropped last week. After downstream restocking ended, production and sales declined. The basis in the Shahe area narrowed positively, and the basis in Hubei Minghong changed from negative to positive. Spot prices were basically stable, reducing hedging opportunities. The 5 - 9 spread was - 127 yuan/ton, and there were still risks in long - short spreads. Supply decreased as the second line of Sichuan Wujun with a daily melting capacity of 900 tons was cold - repaired. Nationwide inventory continued to decline, but the decline weakened. Downstream processing plants had average new orders and mainly maintained a rigid - demand purchasing rhythm. The price of soda ash, a raw material, was weak, and the only factor disturbing the market was the increase in coal costs. Technically, the short - side force reached its peak, and there was a possibility of profit - taking [3]. - Operation Strategy: Sell out - of - the - money call options [4] 02 Market Review: Futures Decline - Spot Price: As of March 20, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,070 yuan/ton (unchanged) in North China, 1,090 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan) in Central China, and 1,250 yuan/ton (unchanged) in East China. - Futures Price: Last Friday, the glass 05 contract closed at 1,054 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 81 yuan [11]. 03 Market Review: Basis Turns Positive - Soda Ash - Glass Spread: As of March 20, the soda ash futures price was 1,202 yuan, and the glass futures price was 1,054 yuan. The spread between them was 148 yuan/ton (+ 6 yuan). - Basis: Last Friday, the basis of the glass 05 contract was 6 yuan/ton (+ 61 yuan). - Contract Spread: Last Friday, the 05 - 09 spread was - 127 yuan/ton (- 14 yuan) [12][16]. 04 Profit: Gross Margin Declines - Natural Gas Process: The cost was 1,572 yuan/ton (- 2 yuan), and the gross margin was - 322 yuan/ton (+ 2 yuan). - Coal - Gas Process: The cost was 1,179 yuan/ton (+ 6 yuan), and the gross margin was - 109 yuan/ton (- 6 yuan). - Petroleum Coke Process: The cost was 1,098 yuan/ton (- 2 yuan), and the gross margin was - 8 yuan/ton (- 8 yuan). - Fuel Prices: On March 20, the industrial natural gas price in Hebei was 4.31 yuan/m³, the CIF price of US 3% sulfur shot coke was 175 US dollars/ton, and the price of Yulin thermal coal was 609 yuan/ton [20]. 05 Supply: Decrease - The daily melting capacity of glass last Friday was 146,585 tons/day (- 1,200 tons). Currently, there are 207 production lines in operation. Multiple production lines have undergone cold - repair,复产, new ignition, and conversion [22][23]. 06 Inventory: Continued Inventory Reduction - As of March 20, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 7,443.6 ten - thousand weight boxes (- 141.3 ten - thousand weight boxes). Inventory in various regions also decreased, such as North China (- 72 ten - thousand weight boxes), Central China (- 12 ten - thousand weight boxes), etc. [25][28]. 07 Deep - Processing: Decrease in Order Days - Production and Sales Rate: On March 19, the comprehensive production and sales rate of float glass was 97% (- 23%). - LOW - E Glass: On March 20, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 43.8% (+ 2.2%). - Order Available Days: At the beginning of February, the order days of glass deep - processing were 6.35 days (- 2.95 days) [29]. 08 Demand: Decrease in Sales During the Spring Festival - Automobile: In February, China's automobile production was 1.672 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 778,000 vehicles and a year - on - year decrease of 431,000 vehicles. Sales were 1.805 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 541,000 vehicles and a year - on - year decrease of 324,000 vehicles. - New - Energy Vehicles: In February, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 464,000 vehicles, with a penetration rate of 44.9% [38]. 09 Demand: Real Estate Data Continues to Decline - Real Estate: From January to February, China's real estate completion area was 63.2042 million m², a year - on - year decrease of 28%; new construction area was 50.839 million m² (- 23%); construction area was 5.35372 billion m² (- 12%); and commercial housing sales area was 92.93 million m² (- 14%). - Transaction Area: From March 9 to March 15, the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.7 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 45% and a year - on - year decrease of 8%. - Development Investment: In December, real estate development investment was 419.724 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 37% [44]. 10 Soda Ash: Spot and Futures Prices - Spot Price: As of last weekend, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash was 1,275 yuan/ton (unchanged) in North China, 1,250 yuan/ton (unchanged) in East China, 1,225 yuan/ton (unchanged) in Central China, and 1,375 yuan/ton (unchanged) in South China. - Futures Price: Last Friday, the soda ash 2605 contract closed at 1,202 yuan/ton (- 75 yuan). - Basis: Last Friday, the basis of the soda ash Central China 05 contract was 23 yuan/ton (+ 75 yuan) [45][48][49]. 11 Cost - Side - Soda Ash: Improvement in Joint - Soda Profit - Soda Ash Profit: As of last Friday, the ammonia - soda process cost of soda ash enterprises was 1,294 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the gross margin was - 25 yuan/ton (+ 1 yuan); the joint - production process cost was 1,729 yuan/ton (+ 89 yuan), and the gross margin was 228 yuan/ton (+ 62 yuan). - Other Prices: Last Friday, the market price of synthetic ammonia in Hubei was 2,653 yuan/ton (+ 317 yuan), and the ex - factory price of wet ammonium chloride of Xuzhou Fengcheng was 500 yuan/ton (+ 100 yuan) [50][51][52]. 12 Cost - Side - Soda Ash: Increase in Production - Inventory: As of March 20, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 185.38 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 7.79 tons). - Soda Ash Production: Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 81.81 tons (a week - on - week increase of 0.89 tons), including 43.4 tons of heavy soda ash (a week - on - week increase of 0.57 tons) and 38.41 tons of light soda ash (a week - on - week increase of 0.32 tons). The loss was 12.88 tons (a week - on - week increase of 0.79 tons). - Warehouse Receipt Quantity: Last weekend, the number of soda ash warehouse receipts on the exchange was 0 (a week - on - week decrease of 2,263) [61][62]. 13 Cost - Side - Soda Ash: Improvement in Apparent Demand - Apparent Consumption: Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 46.14 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.13 tons; the apparent demand for light soda ash was 43.46 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4 tons. - Production and Sales Rate: Last week, the production and sales rate of soda ash was 109.63%, a week - on - week increase of 7.71%. - Glass Factory Inventory: In February, the soda ash inventory of sample float glass factories was 19.55 days [64].