供需主导基差走强：长江期货尿素周报：-20260323

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View Urea's开工负荷率 has slightly decreased, and off - season reserves are being released into the market, resulting in an abundant supply. Agricultural fertilizer preparation and use, along with the increased operation rate of compound fertilizer plants, have boosted the demand for urea. The inventory level of urea enterprises is relatively low compared to the same period last year, and inventory reduction is smooth. In the short term, the price will fluctuate within a certain range [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Changes - Urea's futures price has declined, while the spot price has remained stable. On March 20, the closing price of the urea 2605 contract was 1841 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan/ton or 2.54% from last week. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1838 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton or 0.54% from last week [3][4]. - The main - contract basis of urea has strengthened. On March 20, the main - contract basis in the Henan market was - 3 yuan/ton, with a weekly basis operating range of (- 57) - (- 3) yuan/ton [3][7]. - The 5 - 9 spread of urea has weakened. On March 20, the 5 - 9 spread was - 53 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of (- 53) - (- 39) yuan/ton [3][8][9]. Fundamental Changes - Supply: The urea operating load rate is 92.21%, a decrease of 1.02 percentage points from last week. The operating load rate of gas - based enterprises is 77.92%, a decrease of 5.58 percentage points from last week. The daily average urea output is 21.71 tons. Some plants in Hainan, Xinjiang, Sichuan and other regions have been under maintenance or short - term shutdown, resulting in a slight decrease in the operating load. Off - season reserves are being released into the market, and the market supply is abundant [3][11]. - Cost: The anthracite market is tepid, and coal prices are mainly stable. As of March 19, the tax - included price of anthracite washed small pieces with S0.4 - 0.5 in Jincheng, Shanxi is 880 - 930 yuan/ton; the tax - included price of anthracite washed lumps with S1 - 1.5 in Yangquan, Shanxi is 780 - 840 yuan/ton, both of which are at the same level as the closing price of the same period last week [15]. - Profit: The gross profit margin of coal - based urea is 5.85%, and the gross profit margin of gas - based urea is - 2.65%. The mainstream price of the urea market is running at a high level, and the production profit of urea has recovered [15]. - Demand: - Agricultural demand: As the temperature warms up, the demand for wheat green - turning fertilizer is gradually being released. The average pre - collection of major urea production enterprises is 6.4 days, and the weekly production - sales rate of urea enterprises is 100.9% [16][17]. - Industrial demand: - The capacity operation rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 49.97%, an increase of 4.41 percentage points from last week. The compound fertilizer inventory is 73.38 tons, a decrease of 1.51 percentage points from last week. The demand in the compound fertilizer market is fair, dealers are accelerating the distribution of goods, mainly to digest inventory, and fertilizer enterprises' operation has increased to a relatively high level to meet the shipping demand [21]. - The operating load rate of melamine enterprises is 62.91%, an increase of 5.91 percentage points from last week, and the weekly output is 3.395 tons. Some plants in Shanxi Fengxi Linyi, Sichuan Jinxiang Sairui D area and Shaanxi Longhua have had short - term shutdowns for maintenance, while some plants in Shanxi Fengxi, Zhongyuan Dahua, Henan Jinkong Tianqing, Hubei Huaqiang and Sichuan Jinxiang Sairui have resumed production after maintenance, and the plants of Shaanxi Longhua and Henan Junhua are in the recovery stage [24]. - The national building materials and home furnishing prosperity index and the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores have decreased, and the demand support in the panel market has weakened [25]. - Inventory: Urea enterprise inventory is 65.1 tons, a decrease of 7 tons from last week and a decrease of 44.4 tons compared to the same period last year. Urea port inventory is 23.9 tons, a decrease of 3 tons from last week. There are 8499 registered urea warehouse receipts, totaling 16.998 tons, an increase of 2371 receipts or 5.462 tons compared to the same period last year [3][28]. Key Points of Attention - The operation of compound fertilizer plants, the reduction and maintenance of urea plants, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [3].