黑色金属数据日报-20260323

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For steel, it is in a stage of both supply and demand being strong. Consider short - term long positions or wait and see, and gradually focus on the opportunity of going long on the basis of hot - rolled coils. When the coil - rebar spread reaches 175+, take profit [2][8] - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the market is in a range - bound state with price fluctuations increasing. Temporarily wait and see [3][5][10] - For coking coal and coke, if the coking coal 09 contract hits the daily limit on Monday, try small - position long positions and buy calls, and enter the cash - futures positive arbitrage position [6][8] - For iron ore, the price is mainly in a high - level range - bound state. Do not chase high or low, and operate according to the range - bound strategy [7] Section Summaries Futures Market - On March 20, the closing prices of far - month contracts (RB2610, HC2610, etc.) and near - month contracts (RB2605, HC2605, etc.) had different changes in values and percentages. The cross - month spreads, spreads/price ratios/profits also had corresponding changes [1] Steel - The steel market is in a stage of both supply and demand being strong. Iron and steel output has rebounded, and the apparent demand of each variety has also increased slightly. The inventory of each variety of steel has started to decline. The pressure on hot - rolled coils is relatively large, and the inventory - sales ratios of other varieties are acceptable. Consider short - term long positions or wait and see, and gradually focus on the opportunity of going long on the basis of hot - rolled coils. When the coil - rebar spread reaches 175+, take profit [2][8] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The impact of geopolitical conflicts on ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is mainly emotional, and the actual impact is limited. Coal price increases may support costs. The demand from steel mills recovers slowly, and the supply pressure is gradually emerging. The futures market is driven by emotions, but the spot market lags behind. The current market is in a range - bound state, and it is recommended to wait and see [3][5][10] Coking Coal and Coke - The spot market sentiment has improved, and there are expectations of price increases. The main logic in the futures market is geopolitical conflicts. The market's trading on the Iran issue has shifted from "inflation shock" to "growth shock". If the coking coal 09 contract hits the daily limit on Monday, try small - position long positions and buy calls, and enter the cash - futures positive arbitrage position [6][8] Iron Ore - The iron ore price is in a high - level range - bound state. Due to the undetermined negotiation between Chinese mines and BHP, the price is difficult to decline significantly in the short term. With high port inventories and oversupply this year, it is also difficult to break through upwards. Do not chase high or low, and operate according to the range - bound strategy [7]