贵金属数据日报-20260323

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View - The short - term trading of the weakening of the market's loose expectations for major global central banks may continue due to the unresolved Middle - East geopolitical situation, suppressing precious metal prices. However, in the long - term, the allocation value of gold remains. Global central banks and institutions may continue to buy gold, which is expected to support precious metal prices. After recent shocks, the space for a significant decline in precious metal prices may be limited, and long - term long positions can be considered for allocation [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Price Tracking - On March 20, 2026, London gold spot was at $4673.91/ounce, London silver spot was at $71.68/ounce, COMEX gold was at $4675.70/ounce, and COMEX silver was at $71.70/ounce. Compared with March 19, the prices of gold and silver decreased, with gold down about 1.9% and silver down about 0.8% - 4.0%. The prices of domestic gold and silver futures and spot also declined, with AU2604 down 2.1% and AG2604 down 1.7% [3] - The price differences between domestic and foreign markets also changed significantly. For example, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference decreased by 104.3% from March 19 to March 20 [3] 2. Position Data - As of March 20, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1056.99 tons, a decrease of 0.48% from March 19. The silver ETF - SLV was 15248.90453 tons, an increase of 0.41% [3] - For COMEX gold non - commercial positions, the number of long positions increased by 0.24%, and the number of short positions increased by 7.22%. For COMEX silver non - commercial positions, the number of long positions decreased by 2.00%, and the number of short positions increased by 5.91% [3] 3. Inventory Data - On March 20, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory was 106845.00 kg, unchanged from March 19. The SHFE silver inventory was 362495.00 kg, a decrease of 0.65% [3] - The COMEX gold inventory was 32054275 troy ounces, unchanged, and the COMEX silver inventory was 332695255 troy ounces, a decrease of 0.59% [3] 4. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On March 20, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.89, a decrease of 0.11% from March 19. The US dollar index was 99.51, an increase of 0.33% [3] - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.88%, an increase of 2.37%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.4%, an increase of 3.29%. The VIX index increased by 11.31%, the S&P 500 decreased by 1.51%, and NYMEX crude oil increased by 3.70% [3] 5. Market Review - On March 20, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 3.83% to 1039.22 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 6.25% to 17625 yuan/kg [3] 6. Impact Analysis - Affected by the continuous escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, oil prices remained high. The market traded the logic that "rising oil prices weaken the expectation of interest rate cuts", leading to a panic of interest rate hike expectations, a liquidity shock in the capital market, and a continuous sharp decline in precious metal prices [4] - The market generally expects the European and British central banks to raise interest rates 2 - 3 times this year. Traders on Friday evening expected the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in October to be close to 50% and in December to be close to 100%. As a result, US Treasury yields rose significantly, and precious metal prices were further pressured [4] 7. Future Market Analysis - In the short term, as the Middle - East geopolitical situation shows no sign of easing, the trading of the weakening of the market's loose expectations for major global central banks may continue, and precious metal prices are expected to be under pressure [4] - In the long term, the allocation value of gold remains. Global central banks and institutions may continue to buy gold, which is expected to support precious metal prices. After recent shocks, the space for a significant decline in precious metal prices may be limited [4]