短期缺乏上涨驱动，碳酸锂宽幅震荡：碳酸锂周报-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, lithium carbonate lacks upward drivers and will maintain wide - range fluctuations. The geopolitical conflict has led to macro funds trading stagflation risks, putting pressure on liquid assets. The main funds for lithium carbonate continue to flow out, and the short - term upward momentum is insufficient. Fundamentally, supply and demand are in a tight balance, the total inventory is slightly decreasing, and the narrowing of the gap between apparent demand and production makes it more difficult for prices to rise. Although new - energy vehicle sales are poor, the material sector remains fully productive, which is expected to support lithium carbonate prices to some extent [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Overview - In China, from January to February, industrial added value increased by 5.1% year - on - year, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.7% year - on - year, and consumer spending showed marginal improvement. Fixed - asset investment increased by 1.8% year - on - year, with infrastructure investment increasing by 11.4% year - on - year, playing a significant supporting role. In February, housing prices in first - tier cities in 70 large and medium - sized cities showed a slight recovery, while those in second - and third - tier cities remained stable. In March, the one - year and five - year LPR remained unchanged for the ninth consecutive month. Overseas, the US PPI in February increased by 2.1% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month, highlighting inflation stickiness. The Fed kept the interest rate unchanged and adopted a wait - and - see approach, and the market expects no interest rate cuts in 2026. The conflict between the US and Iran exceeded market expectations, and funds are worried about the risk of economic stagflation, putting pressure on liquid assets [3]. 3.2 Supply Side - This week, lithium carbonate production increased week - on - week, with lithium extraction from spodumene contributing the main increase. Lithium salt plants actively purchased raw materials, and domestic supply capacity is gradually recovering. Chile's lithium carbonate exports to China are expected to arrive this month, increasing overseas supply [10]. 3.3 Demand Side - According to the Passenger Car Association, from March 1st to 15th, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 285,000 units, a 28% year - on - year decrease compared to the same period in March last year but a 36% increase compared to the same period last month. Cumulative retail sales this year were 1.345 million units, a 26% year - on - year decrease. From March 1st to 15th, the wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers was 325,000 units, a 19% year - on - year decrease compared to the same period in March last year but a 47% increase compared to the same period last month. Cumulative wholesale volume this year was 1.914 million units, a 10% year - on - year decrease [3]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - This week, the price of lithium ore decreased week - on - week. The price of African SC 5% was $1,680/ton, a decrease of $150/ton compared to last week; the CIF price of Australian 6% spodumene was $2,008/ton, a decrease of $152/ton compared to last week; the market price of lithium mica was 6,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton compared to last week. The profit of the lithium carbonate industry was 16,608 yuan/ton, a decrease of 234 yuan week - on - week [4]. 3.5 Total Inventory - As of March 19th, the total inventory was 98,873 tons, a decrease of 86 tons compared to last week. The inventory of upstream smelters was 16,608 tons, an increase of 316 tons week - on - week [4]. 3.6 Market Price - As of March 20th, LC2605 closed at 143,860 yuan/ton, a 5.4% decrease compared to last week. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 147,500 yuan/ton, a 7% decrease compared to last week. The basis premium increased, and the position of the main contract was 277,000. This week, the main contract fluctuated downward. The macro - risk aversion sentiment increased, and liquid assets were under pressure. The fundamentals of lithium carbonate changed little, but the inventory reduction continued to slow down, and the narrowing gap between apparent demand and production led to insufficient upward drivers. The main funds mainly reduced positions throughout the week, and trading volume remained low, following the adjustment of the non - ferrous metals sector in the short term [8]. 3.7 Production of Related Products - As of March 20th, lithium carbonate production was 24,365 tons, an increase of 645 tons week - on - week. The enterprise operating rate was 52.91%, an increase of 1.4% week - on - week. Phosphoric acid iron lithium production was 114,548 tons, an increase of 1,139 tons week - on - week. The enterprise operating rate was 89.55%, an increase of 1.03% week - on - week. The supply and demand of phosphoric acid iron lithium remained stable, with leading enterprises in the industry maintaining full production and sales, and small and medium - sized enterprises producing according to orders. The production capacity in Hubei, Gansu and other places was stably released [10][13]. 3.8 Inventory of Related Products - As of March 20th, the total inventory of the phosphoric acid iron lithium industry was 26,975 tons, a decrease of 756 tons compared to last week. The inventory of phosphoric acid iron lithium products continued to decline, and the industry inventory continued to be depleted. The downstream battery factories actively stocked up during the peak season and the window period for export rush, and the inventory depletion trend is expected to continue [35].