全球宏观及大类资产配置周报-20260323

Report Information - Report Title: Global Macro and Asset Allocation Weekly Report - Report Date: March 23, 2026 - Research Institution: Orient Futures Derivatives Research Institute, Macro Strategy Group 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The situation between the US and Iran continues to dominate market trends. The expansion of the conflict to energy facilities has led to concerns about inflation and a more cautious stance on monetary policy. Market expectations of interest rate cuts have been dispelled, and short - term interest rate hike risks are being priced in, putting pressure on most major asset classes [5]. - The war situation has led to a spread of stagflation concerns in the domestic market. A - share markets are dominated by risk - aversion trading, and the bond market continues to be under pressure [5]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Macro Context Tracking - The US - Iran conflict has expanded to energy facilities, potentially lengthening the recovery cycle of crude oil supply. Brent crude oil prices have risen, increasing inflation concerns. Central banks have become more cautious, with the Fed on hold in March, the ECB's probability of a rate hike increasing, and the Bank of England sending hawkish signals [5]. - The market has abandoned expectations of rate cuts this year and is pricing in rate - hike risks, tightening financial market liquidity and pressuring major assets [5]. - In the domestic market, stagflation concerns have spread, and risk - aversion trading has dominated the A - share market, with most sectors falling significantly and the bond market under continued pressure [5]. 3.2 Global Major Asset Performance Overview 3.2.1 Equity Markets - Global stock markets generally fell this week, with risk appetite continuing to decline. In developed markets, the S&P 500 fell 1.9%, the German DAX fell 4.55%, the Nikkei 225 fell 0.83%, and the South Korean KOSPI rose 5.36%. In emerging markets, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.38%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.74%, the Brazilian IBOVESPA fell 0.81%, and the Saudi All - Share Index rose 0.55% [7][9]. - MSCI global indices generally declined, with emerging markets > frontier markets > global markets > developed markets [9]. 3.2.2 Currency Markets - The US dollar index fell from its high, depreciating 0.99% to 99.5. The on - shore RMB appreciated 0.31% to 6.88. Emerging market currencies fluctuated, with the Mexican peso appreciating 0.17% and the Brazilian real appreciating 0.08%. Most developed - country currencies appreciated, with the euro up 1.32%, the yen up 0.32%, the British pound up 0.91%, and the Australian dollar up 0.58% [10][12]. 3.2.3 Bond Markets - Inflation concerns led to continued upward oscillations in the yields of 10 - year government bonds in major developed countries. In developed markets, the US Treasury yield rose 11bp to 4.39%, the UK Treasury yield rose 9bp, and the Japanese Treasury yield fell 2bp. In emerging markets, the Chinese Treasury yield rose to 1.83%, the Indian Treasury yield rose 6bp, and the Brazilian Treasury yield fell 11bp [17][19]. 3.2.4 Commodity Markets - The US - Iran conflict continued to escalate, and the commodity market consolidated at a high level under tight liquidity. WTI crude oil fell 1.23% and natural gas fell 1.15% in the week ending March 13. The previously high - flying metal sector continued to be pressured, with LME copper down 7.07%, LME aluminum down 7.18%, COMEX gold down 10.57%, and silver down 15.92% [22]. - The domestic commodity market showed mixed performance, with energy and chemicals > black metals > industrial products > agricultural products > non - ferrous metals > precious metals [22]. 3.3 Weekly Outlook for Major Assets 3.3.1 Precious Metals - Gold is rated as "weakly oscillating." Short - term market tightening trading logic continues, with rising interest rates pressuring gold. The price of gold has support around $4400 - $4500 per ounce, but volatility is high, and it's difficult to say it's stable. Buying on dips requires waiting [24][25]. - The Comex gold futures speculative net long position increased slightly, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased slightly to 1056 tons, and funds flowed out of the precious metals sector. Silver is expected to be weak, with its ETF holdings flowing out and the risk of a short squeeze decreasing [37]. 3.3.2 Foreign Exchange - The US dollar is rated as "oscillating." Uncertainty in the US - Iran situation has increased, and the US dollar will maintain high - level fluctuations [24]. 3.3.3 US Stocks - US stocks are rated as "weakly oscillating." Although there are signals of a cooling in the US - Iran conflict, short - term uncertainty remains high. Before the actual easing, US stocks are expected to continue to be weak and oscillating. It's recommended to wait for right - side signals [24][43]. 3.3.4 A - Shares - A - shares are rated as "oscillating." In the short term, as the war situation expands, there are few opportunities for stock indexes. It's recommended to adopt a risk - aversion strategy and wait for the situation to become clear with a low - position [24][57]. 3.3.5 Government Bonds - Government bonds are rated as "oscillating." Negative factors still exist, but the war situation is complex. It's recommended to be cautious and pay more attention to short - selling hedging strategies [24][60]. 3.4 Global Macroeconomic Data Tracking 3.4.1 Overseas High - frequency Economic Data - The US GDPNow model predicts Q1 growth to slow to 2.3%, while the Redbook retail sales year - on - year growth rate is 6.4%. The US economy remains resilient. Brent crude oil prices rose to $109 per barrel, increasing inflation concerns [77]. - US jobless claims continued to fall to 1.857 million, and initial claims were 205,000. The job market remained resilient, and the number of unemployed did not increase significantly [77]. - Bank reserves fell to $3 trillion, the TGA account balance rose to $875.8 billion, and overnight reverse repurchase volume rose to $820 million. Inter - bank market liquidity remained tight. High - yield corporate bond credit spreads oscillated upward, and investment - grade corporate bond spreads reached recent highs [83]. - The 2 - month US non - farm payrolls decreased by 92,000, far below market expectations. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. The 2 - month CPI was in line with expectations, with a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. Inflation still faces significant resistance to decline, and the risk of future inflation rebound has increased [86]. 3.4.2 Domestic High - frequency Economic Data - The "Qiushi" magazine published an article on improving and stabilizing real - estate expectations, but it's unclear how to improve expectations under the pressure of residents' income. Shanghai's second - hand housing transactions increased, but the transaction volume of first - hand housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was low [92]. - As of March 20, R001, DR001, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.39%, 1.32%, 1.32%, and 1.42% respectively. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 8.37 trillion yuan this week, 196.1 billion yuan less than last week [95]. - China's January - February economic data generally exceeded market expectations. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased 6.3% year - on - year, fixed - asset investment increased 1.8% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail sales increased 2.8% year - on - year [96]. - In February, new loans were 90 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease. Residents' short - term and medium - long - term loans were negative, while enterprises' short - term and medium - long - term loans increased year - on - year. Social financing increased year - on - year, but there was no obvious improvement in credit [104]. - In February, PPI year - on - year growth was - 0.9%, and CPI year - on - year growth was 1.3%. Input factors and the release of residents' consumption demand during the Spring Festival led to rising prices. If the war ends quickly, the pace of domestic price increases will be relatively slow; if it continues to escalate, inflation will rise rapidly [111]. - January - February exports increased 21.8% year - on - year, and imports increased 19.8% year - on - year. The overall improvement in global manufacturing PMI and the late Spring Festival this year contributed to the increase in export growth [119].