中原期货晨会纪要-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Middle - East energy facilities attack has severely impacted the global energy supply, with a significant drop in the daily oil export volume from Middle - East countries [6]. - The Fed has maintained the federal funds rate target range, with a more conservative stance on future interest rate cuts, reflecting its cautious attitude in the face of multiple risks [7]. - For various commodities, different supply - demand situations and price trends are presented, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed [11][13][15]. - In the stock market, the A - share market is in an adjustment pattern, and investors are advised to manage positions and be cautious in trading [20][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Chemicals - The prices of most chemical products rose on March 23, 2026, compared with March 22. For example, the price of coking coal increased by 92.50 to 1,263.50, with a growth rate of 7.899%; the price of coke increased by 72.0 to 1,812.50, with a growth rate of 4.137% [4]. 3.2 Macro - news - The attack on Iran's energy facilities by the US and Israel has led to a sharp increase in the risk of energy facilities in the Middle - East being attacked. Iran has announced counter - measures, and the conflict has had an unprecedented impact on global energy supply [6]. - The Fed has maintained the federal funds rate, with a more conservative interest - rate cut path, and has raised inflation and economic growth expectations [7]. - China will continue to communicate on Trump's visit to China, and has launched a second - round pilot project to extend the land contract for another 30 years [8]. 3.3 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Sugar: The near - month contract has limited upward space due to high domestic inventory, while the far - month contract may have opportunities to be deployed at low prices [11]. - Corn: The current price is in a high - level shock pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see cautiously [11]. - Peanut: The futures price is in a high - level narrow - range shock, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 8200 and the support at 8000 [11]. - Pig: The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and the overall trend is weak [11]. - Egg: The spot price is stable, showing a pattern of near - strength and far - weakness, and short - term trading is recommended [13]. - Jujube: The market is in a seasonal consumption off - season, and the supply exceeds demand, and it is recommended to hold and pay attention to the previous low support [13]. - Cotton: In the short term, the price is suppressed, but in the long - term, it is supported by demand and planting area expectations, and it is recommended to buy on dips around 15000 [13]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Caustic Soda: There is an expectation of stronger exports, but attention should be paid to the risk of near - month contract correction [13]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The production is at a relatively high level, and the price is supported. It is recommended to go long on dips [13][15]. - Double - offset Paper: The price has broken through the previous range, and attention should be paid to the support at 4100 and the pressure at 4200 [15]. - Urea: The supply is relatively sufficient, and the short - term price may face shock and pressure [15]. 3.3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - Gold and Silver: The prices are in high - level shock, and attention should be paid to risks [15]. - Copper and Aluminum: The prices have followed the market correction, and it is recommended to wait for the price to stop falling and stabilize [15][16]. - Alumina: It is recommended to take a long - position approach on dips, and be vigilant against macro risks [16]. - Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil: The prices are strong in the short term, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [16]. - Ferroalloy: The short - term trend is strong, but it is not advisable to chase the rise at high levels [16]. - Lithium Carbonate: It is recommended to short on rallies, and pay attention to the pressure at 150000 [18]. 3.3.4 Option Finance - Stock Index Options: The A - share market is in an adjustment pattern. Trend investors can pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can trade according to the price trend. It is not advisable to blindly chase the rise or kill the fall, and it is recommended to control positions [20][22].