GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2026-03-23 05:24Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [4][6] Core Views - Alibaba's total revenue for FY2026 Q3 reached 284.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%. However, the non-GAAP net profit decreased by 67% to approximately 17.1 billion yuan [1] - The Chinese e-commerce segment generated 159.3 billion yuan in revenue, growing by 6%, while the adjusted EBITA fell by 43% to about 34.6 billion yuan. Instant retail revenue surged by 56% to 20.8 billion yuan [1] - Alibaba Cloud's revenue grew by 36% year-on-year to 43.3 billion yuan, with an adjusted EBITA increase of 25% to approximately 3.9 billion yuan [1] - The report highlights the ongoing strategic investments in AI, aiming for over 100 billion USD in cloud and AI commercialization revenue over the next five years [3] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Alibaba are estimated at 1,029.5 billion yuan for FY2026, 1,136.5 billion yuan for FY2027, and 1,248.5 billion yuan for FY2028, with expected non-GAAP net profits of 86.6 billion yuan, 128.8 billion yuan, and 169.3 billion yuan respectively [4][5] - The report anticipates a recovery in e-commerce and customer management revenue in Q1 FY2026, driven by improved logistics efficiency and customer retention [2] - The adjusted EBITA for FY2026 is projected to be 87.3 billion yuan, with a profit margin of 8% [13]