格林大华期货早盘提示：纯苯-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pure benzene in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating bullish" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The Middle East geopolitical situation has significantly escalated, causing high - level and volatile international crude oil prices. The previous expectation of reduced raw material input for pure benzene has led to an expected tightening of the supply side. Most major downstream products are in a good profit - making state. In the short term, the pure benzene price will oscillate at a high level under the influence of crude oil prices. Attention should be paid to the development of the Middle East geopolitical situation [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review - On Friday, the price of the main contract futures BZ2605 rose by 217 yuan to 8481 yuan/ton. The spot price in the mainstream area of East China was 8140 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 210 yuan), and the spot price in Shandong was 7751 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 75 yuan). In terms of positions, long positions increased by 441 lots to 17,800 lots, and short positions increased by 256 lots to 19,200 lots [2] 3.2 Important Information - Supply: In February, the domestic pure benzene production was 1.8591 million tons, a decrease of 87,300 tons from the previous month and an increase of 138,500 tons from the same month last year [2] - Inventory: On March 16, 2026, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene ports in Jiangsu was 288,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from the previous inventory of 302,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.6%; compared with the inventory of 135,000 tons in the same period last year, the inventory increased by 153,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 113.33%. From March 9th to March 15th, the incomplete statistics showed that the arrival was 44,000 tons and the pick - up was about 58,000 tons. During the period, among the statistical storage areas, 3 storage areas decreased, 1 increased, and 3 remained stable [2] - Price Adjustment: Sinopec's chemical sales raised the listed price of pure benzene by 400 yuan/ton. The companies in East China, North China, South China, and Central China along the Yangtze River all implemented 8400 yuan/ton, which has been officially implemented since March 12th [2] - Demand: The operating rate of styrene was 71.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3%; the operating rate of phenol was 87%, a month - on - month decrease of 2%; the operating rate of caprolactam was 74.5%, unchanged from the previous month; the operating rate of aniline was 89%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%; the operating rate of adipic acid was 69%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7% [2] - International Oil Price: The Middle East situation has led to significant production cuts in multiple oil - producing countries, and there are reports that the US may send ground troops, increasing supply risks and causing international oil prices to rise. The NYMEX crude oil futures 04 contract rose 2.18 dollars/barrel to 98.32 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 2.27%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 05 contract rose 3.54 dollars/barrel to 112.19 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 3.26%. The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2605 contract fell 27 to 776.4 yuan/barrel and rose 26.4 to 802.8 yuan/barrel at night [2] 3.3 Market Logic - The sharp escalation of the Middle East geopolitical situation has caused high - level and volatile international crude oil prices. The previous expectation of reduced raw material input for pure benzene has led to an expected tightening of the supply side. Most major downstream products such as styrene, caprolactam, and aniline are in a good profit - making state. In the short term, the pure benzene price will oscillate at a high level under the influence of crude oil prices [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The trading strategy is to wait and see or do short - term long [2]