新能源周报：宏观避险情绪，引发价格巨震-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the price is expected to fluctuate with a slightly upward trend due to sporadic restarts in major production areas on the supply side, a slight increase in weekly output of polysilicon and a slight decrease in organosilicon on the demand side, and continuous inventory reduction but still high inventory levels [6]. - For polysilicon, due to the poor liquidity of existing contracts, investors are reminded to pay attention to price fluctuations and liquidity risks and participate cautiously [7]. - For lithium carbonate, the futures price is expected to fluctuate. It is under pressure from macro - hedging and slow inventory reduction, but supported by demand. In the short term, due to the unclear macro - situation, investors are advised to participate cautiously [72]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Industrial Silicon (SI) - Supply: National weekly output is 6.73 tons, a 1.55% week - on - week increase; the number of open furnaces is 204, a net increase of 2. In February, the output was 27.57 tons, a 26.58% month - on - month decrease and a 4.77% year - on - year decrease. The planned output for March is 34.54 tons, a 25.27% month - on - month increase and a 0.99% year - on - year increase [6]. - Demand: For polysilicon, the weekly output is 1.97 tons, a 0.36% week - on - week increase; the factory inventory is 38.01 tons, a 1.92% week - on - week increase; the profit per ton is about - 3663 yuan, a 2000 - yuan decrease per ton week - on - week. For organosilicon, the DMC weekly output is 4.15 tons, a 0.95% week - on - week decrease; the factory inventory is 4.91 tons, a 6.51% week - on - week increase; the gross profit per ton is 885.63 yuan, a 464 - yuan decrease per ton week - on - week [6]. - Inventory: The national average cost per ton is 9072.06 yuan, a 0.01% week - on - week decrease; the gross profit per ton is - 109 yuan, a 3.26% week - on - week increase. In major production areas, the gross profit has decreased [6]. - Cost and Profit: The national average cost per ton is 9073 yuan, a 0.01% week - on - week increase; the gross profit per ton is - 105 yuan, an 11 - yuan increase per ton week - on - week. In major production areas, the gross profit has decreased [6]. - Investment View: The price is expected to fluctuate with a slightly upward trend [6]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading should be based on a fluctuating market. Risks to be concerned about include production reduction and restart disturbances from large factories and changes in environmental protection policies [6]. 3.2 Polysilicon (PS) - Supply: The national weekly output is 1.97 tons, a 0.36% week - on - week increase. In February, the output was 7.7 tons, a 23.61% month - on - month decrease and a 14.54% year - on - year decrease. The planned output for March is 8.49 tons, a 10.26% month - on - month increase and an 11.65% year - on - year decrease [7]. - Demand: The weekly output of silicon wafers is 10.68GW, a 1.41% week - on - week decrease; the gross profit per GW is - 32410 yuan, a 1200 - yuan increase week - on - week; the factory inventory is 27.65GW, a 2.47% week - on - week decrease [7]. - Inventory: The factory inventory is 38.01 tons, a 1.92% week - on - week increase; the registered warehouse receipts are 29430 tons, an 8.23% week - on - week decrease [7]. - Cost and Profit: The national average cost per ton is 44190 yuan, unchanged week - on - week; the gross profit per ton is - 3663 yuan, a 2000 - yuan decrease week - on - week [7]. - Investment View: Due to the poor liquidity of existing contracts, investors are reminded to pay attention to price fluctuations and liquidity risks and participate cautiously [7]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading should be on a wait - and - see basis. Risks to be concerned about include production reduction and restart disturbances from large factories and changes in anti - involution policies [7]. 3.3 Lithium Carbonate (LC) - Supply: The national weekly output is 2.42 tons, a 3.24% week - on - week increase. In February, the output was 8.31 tons, a 15.13% month - on - month decrease and a 35.00% year - on - year increase. The planned output for March is about 10.64 tons, a 28.04% month - on - month increase and a 34.56% year - on - year increase [72]. - Import: In February, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 2.64 tons, a 1.61% month - on - month decrease and a 114.36% year - on - year increase. In January, the import volume of lithium concentrate was 63.59 tons, a 1.26% month - on - month increase and a 32.16% year - on - year increase [72]. - Material Demand: For iron - lithium materials, the weekly output is 11.45 tons, a 1.00% week - on - week increase; the factory inventory is 10.67 tons, a 0.89% week - on - week increase. For ternary materials, the weekly output is 1.95 tons, a 0.57% week - on - week increase; the factory inventory is 1.84 tons, a 2.25% week - on - week increase [72]. - Terminal Demand: In February, the output of new energy vehicles was 69.45 vehicles, a 33.27% month - on - month decrease and a 21.76% year - on - year decrease; the sales volume was 76.48 vehicles, a 19.05% month - on - month decrease and a 14.23% year - on - year decrease. The winning bid power/scale for energy storage in February was 5.45GW/26.4GWH, a 40.24% month - on - month decrease and a 14.29% increase/year - on - year increase of 66.16%/204.85% [72]. - Inventory: The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 9.89 tons, a 0.09% week - on - week decrease. The inventory of lithium salt factories is 1.66 tons, a 1.94% week - on - week increase; the inventory of downstream sectors (cathode factories, battery factories, and traders) is 8.23 tons, a 0.49% week - on - week decrease [72]. - Cost and Profit: For lithium extraction from purchased ore, the cash production cost of lithium mica is 141044 yuan/ton, a 6.86% week - on - week decrease; the production profit is 6289 yuan/ton, a 5347 - yuan increase per ton week - on - week. The cash production cost of lithium spodumene is 150779 yuan/ton, a 3.73% week - on - week decrease; the production profit is - 250 yuan/ton, a 478 - yuan increase per ton week - on - week [72]. - Investment View: The futures price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate. It is under pressure from macro - hedging and slow inventory reduction, but supported by demand. In the short term, due to the unclear macro - situation, investors are advised to participate cautiously [72]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading should be based on a fluctuating market. Risks to be concerned about include production reduction disturbances at the ore end, changes in environmental protection policies, and disturbances from large power factories [72].