烧碱周报：美伊冲突扰动供应，烧碱期货震荡上涨-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is bullish, as the report anticipates significant production cuts due to the impact of the US-Iran conflict [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The US-Iran conflict has disrupted the supply, causing the caustic soda futures to fluctuate and rise. The report analyzes the supply, demand, inventory, basis, profit, valuation, and macro - policy factors of caustic soda, and concludes that there is an expectation of significant production cuts in the future, leading to a bullish investment view [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: This week, maintenance decreased and production increased. The weekly domestic caustic soda production rose by 0.3 tons to 85 tons. The average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda sample enterprises was 83.9%, a 1.4% decrease from the previous week. The US - Iran conflict may lead to production cuts in coastal chlor - alkali plants. [3] - Demand: Alumina production declined, non - aluminum demand was weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 90.14%, a 0.05% increase from last week. The average operating rate of printing and dyeing enterprises in Zhejiang was 50.83%, a 7.50% increase from the previous data and a 13.34% increase year - on - year. In December 2025, China's liquid caustic soda export volume was 309,638.3 tons, a 2.4% increase year - on - year and a 69.3% increase month - on - month; the cumulative export volume from January to December was 3,429,614.7 tons, a 31.6% increase year - on - year. [3] - Inventory: The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 500,700 tons (wet tons), a 6.28% decrease from the previous week and a 20.22% increase year - on - year. The inventory ratio of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 28.02%, a 2.39% decrease from the previous week. The inventory ratios in major regions decreased. The sample warehouse inventory in Central China increased by 3.57%, while that in East China decreased by 17.83%. [3] - Basis: The current basis of the main contract is around - 481, with the futures price at a significant premium. [3] - Profit: During this period, raw material and energy costs were stable, the theoretical production cost of caustic soda decreased, the price of caustic soda increased, the average weekly price of liquid chlorine decreased significantly, and the overall chlor - alkali profit decreased. The average price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was adjusted to 150 yuan/ton. [3] - Valuation: The spot price is at a low level, the absolute futures price is neutral, and the main contract is at a large premium. [3] - Macro - policy: The US - Iran conflict has led to a shortage of raw materials for ethylene - based PVC, and some chlor - alkali plants are facing shutdown. [3] - Trading Strategy: No arbitrage or unilateral trading strategies are proposed currently. Key risks to monitor include changes in liquid chlorine prices, rotation storage policies, and the global economic recession. [3] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - This week, the spot price in Shandong slightly increased, while the futures price rose significantly. On the supply side, liquid chlorine rebounded, the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali was in the red, there was less maintenance, and enterprises reduced production less, resulting in relatively high overall supply. On the demand side, downstream demand was average, with rigid procurement, and traders had a weak willingness to stockpile, but export transactions were good. The inventory accumulation in Shandong was better than expected, with less inventory pressure, and enterprises were more willing to hold prices. However, the US - Iran conflict has led to a shortage of raw materials for ethylene - based PVC plants, and some plants are planning to shut down or reduce production, which is expected to lead to a shortage of caustic soda supply in the future. [7] 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Electricity Price: Coal prices have stabilized, and electricity prices are fluctuating within a range. [36] - Upstream Production: The production capacity utilization rate remained high, and inventory decreased. [39] - Main Production Area Output: Maintenance in North China decreased, and production increased. [42] - Chlor - Alkali Comprehensive Profit: The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali has decreased. [43] - Downstream Price: The price of alumina has declined, and non - aluminum prices are weak. [46] - Alumina: The supply - demand balance of alumina has been restored, and inventory has increased. Port bauxite inventory has increased, alumina profit is poor but there has been no significant production cut, and the supply is in surplus with a large increase in factory bauxite inventory. [58][66] - Non - Aluminum Demand: Non - aluminum demand is weak, and the operating rate is at a low level. In the printing and dyeing industry, large dyeing factories mainly execute fixed - customer orders, while small and medium - sized dyeing factories rely on scattered small orders, resulting in a weak overall market operating rate. [68] - Viscose Staple Fiber: The in - plant inventory and capacity utilization rate data are presented. [77] - Liquid Chlorine Downstream: The operating rate has rebounded. [78]