集运指数欧线周报（EC）：地缘情绪仍为主导，PA现货敞口成关注点-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical sentiment remains the dominant factor, and the spot exposure of the PA alliance has become a focus. The freight rates of the European container shipping line are expected to enter a wide - range oscillation pattern after a geopolitical impulse upward movement. The operation should adopt an interval oscillation approach, focusing on the core fluctuation range of 1900 - 2100 points, and avoid blind chasing of high prices. [3][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Spot Quotations: In early April, the spot quotations of the European container shipping line were driven by factors such as the cost transmission of the Red Sea detour and the surcharge of fuel surcharges, showing a generally strong trend. The quotations of the four major alliances were significantly differentiated, with the Gemini Alliance leading the increase, the OA Alliance rising steadily, the PA Alliance relatively low, and MSC's independent quotation being strong. [4] - Political and Economic Factors: Political and economic factors are bullish. There are multiple geopolitical events, such as Trump's statement about the Strait of Hormuz, reports of oil tanker operators paying for passage rights, and potential military actions and counter - actions in the region. [4] - Capacity Supply: The overall supply level shows a monthly upward trend. The supply side needs to focus on two core variables: the redeployment of idle capacity on the Middle East route and the adjustment of route layouts by leading shipping companies under the long - term Red Sea conflict. [4] - Demand: The demand for the European container shipping line this week shows a pattern of "rigid demand as the base and structural differentiation". The overall demand is moderately recovering but with limited increments, mainly affected by cargo type structure, regional differences, and geopolitical factors. The supply - demand relationship is in a weak balance. [4] - Summary and Investment Strategy: This week, the geopolitical sentiment disturbance and supply - demand game dominate the wide - range oscillation. In the short term, there is no clear unilateral trend. It is recommended to adopt an interval oscillation approach, focus on the 1900 - 2100 point core fluctuation range, and pay attention to the filling progress of the PA alliance, the evolution of the geopolitical situation, and oil price fluctuations. [4] 3.2 Price - The report presents the price trends of various container shipping line indices, including the European line index, the US West line index, and the US East line index, but no specific analysis is provided in the text. [8] 3.3 Static Capacity - Order Volume: The report shows the order volume of container ships with different loading capacities over the years, including the proportion of the order book to the fleet for different types of container ships. [11] - Delivery Volume: It presents the delivery volume of container ships with different loading capacities over the years, including feeder container ships, intermediate container ships, and large - scale container ships. [14][16] - Demolition Volume: The demolition volume of container ships with different loading capacities over the years is shown, including feeder container ships, intermediate container ships, and large - scale container ships. [15][17] - Future Delivery: The future delivery volume of container ships with different loading capacities is presented, including the quarterly and annual distribution of future deliveries. [20][22][23] - Ship - Breaking Price: The ship - breaking prices of container ships with different loading capacities over the years are shown, as well as the new - building price index and second - hand ship price index. [27][33] - Existing Capacity: Information about the existing capacity of container ships is provided, including the total capacity, capacity by loading capacity, the proportion of ships over 25 years old, the idle and retrofit ratio, the average age, and the average age of ship - breaking. [42][45][49] 3.4 Dynamic Capacity - Ship Schedule: The report shows the total capacity deployment of container ships from Shanghai to European basic ports, as well as the capacity deployment of different alliances (PA + MSC, GEMINI, OCEAN, MSC) in different weeks. [57][59][61] - Desulfurization Tower Installation: Information about the container ships with installed and being - installed desulfurization towers is presented, including the capacity and the number of ships, as well as the average age and duration of desulfurization tower installation and the average speed of container ships. [67][68][71] - Idle Capacity: The idle capacity of container ships is shown, including the total idle capacity, idle capacity by loading capacity, and the proportion of idle capacity. [75][76][79]