海外因素冲击，股指大幅调整

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, considering both internal and external factors, it is expected that the stock index will continue its weak oscillation pattern. In the future, as the overall economic tone meets expectations, multiple policies continue to work together to promote economic growth, macro - liquidity remains abundant, and capital market policies aim to nurture a "slow - bull" market, the stock index is expected to have room for an upward trend. With the easing of external geopolitical situations and the recovery of market risk appetite, the stock index is expected to consolidate and resume its upward movement. The investment view is to go long in the medium - to - long term, and the trading strategy is to choose the right time to go long in the medium - to - long term, with overseas geopolitical factors being the risk to watch [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Economic and Corporate Profits: The economic indicators from January to February continued the pattern of "mixed hot and cold". The production side was strong, with the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increasing by 6.3% year - on - year, higher than the market expectation of 5.0%. The demand side was generally weak. The total retail sales of consumer goods from January to February was 75,815 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 2.5%, in line with market expectations. The investment growth rate turned slightly positive, with national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) reaching 52,721 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. Infrastructure investment was the core driver, with a year - on - year increase of 11.4%, while real estate investment was still in the adjustment period, with a 11.1% decline in real estate development investment from January to February [3]. - Policy: The probability of "bottom - support" policies in the capital market has increased. The A - share capital market remains well - funded, providing strong support for the stock index. After the sharp adjustment of the stock index last week, the probability of policy - level support has increased [3]. - Overseas Factors: The uncertainty of the Middle East conflict persists, impacting the equity market. The tightening of the global geopolitical situation has pushed up oil prices, increased global inflationary pressure, and restricted the interest - rate cut space of major overseas central banks, leading to a risk of tightening global liquidity. The upstream energy price increase has squeezed the profit margins of domestic mid - and downstream high - end manufacturing industries [3]. - Liquidity: Market sentiment cooled significantly last week, and A - share trading volume shrank sharply. The average daily trading volume decreased by 244.62 billion yuan compared with the previous week [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Market Review - Index Performance: Last week, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index fell 2.19% to 4,567; the Shanghai 50 Index fell 2.47% to 2,883.9; the CSI 500 Index fell 5.82% to 7,760; the CSI 1000 Index fell 5.25% to 7,783.4 [5]. - Industry Index Performance: Most Shenwan primary industry indices declined. Only the communication (2.1%) and banking (0.4%) sectors rose, while non - ferrous metals (- 11.8%), basic chemicals (- 10.5%), steel (- 10.3%), comprehensive (- 8%), and building materials (- 7.9%) sectors led the decline [7]. - Futures Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of CSI 300 futures, Shanghai 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures increased by 34.03%, 44.45%, 20.74%, and 26.76% respectively. The open interest of CSI 300 futures, Shanghai 50 futures, and CSI 500 futures decreased by 3.86%, 4.31%, and 2.05% respectively, while the open interest of CSI 1000 futures increased by 2.77% [11]. - Futures Premium and Discount: As of March 20, the monthly contracts expired. The annualized discounts of the next - month contracts IF2604, IH2604, IC2604, and IM2604 were 7.71%, 1.11%, 10.66%, and 9.32% respectively; the annualized discounts of the current - quarter contracts IF2606, IH2606, IC2606, and IM2606 were 7.08%, 2.51%, 10.37%, and 11.51% respectively; the annualized discounts of the next - quarter contracts IF2609, IH2609, IC2609, and IM2609 were 7.04%, 3.57%, 9.75%, and 11.32% respectively [12]. - Cross - Variety Spread Performance: The spread between the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 and the Shanghai 50 was 1,683.2, at the 97.5% historical quantile level; the spread between the CSI 1000 and the CSI 500 was 23.4, at the 23.9% historical quantile level; the ratio of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 to the CSI 1000 was 0.6, at the 26.9% historical quantile level; the ratio of the Shanghai 50 to the CSI 1000 was 0.6, at the 20.3% historical quantile level [17]. 3.3 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Liquidity - Central Bank Operations: The central bank conducted 242.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations this week, with 176.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 65.8 billion yuan. Next week, 242.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 450 billion yuan of MLF will mature on Wednesday [23]. - Market Volume and Margin Trading: As of March 19, the margin trading balance of A - shares was 2,641.71 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.57 billion yuan from the previous week. The proportion of margin trading purchases in the total market trading volume was 9%, at the 63.7% quantile level in the past ten years. The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week decreased by 244.62 billion yuan compared with the previous week. As of March 20, the risk premium rate of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 was 5.3, at the 53.4% quantile level in the past ten years [29]. 3.4 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Profits - Macroeconomic Indicators: In February 2026, the industrial added value increased by 6.3% year - on - year; fixed - asset investment increased by 1.8% year - on - year; real estate investment decreased by 11.1% year - on - year; infrastructure investment increased by 11.4% year - on - year; social consumer goods retail increased by 2.8% year - on - year; the urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.3%; CPI was 1.3%; PPI was - 0.9%; the increment of social financing was 23,855 billion yuan; the growth rate of social financing stock was 8.2%; the new RMB loans were 8,458 billion yuan; M1 was 5.9%; M2 was 9.0%; exports increased by 39.6% year - on - year; imports increased by 13.8% year - on - year; the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5% [32]. - Corporate Profit Indicators: The year - on - year growth rates of net profit attributable to shareholders of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and other major broad - based indices, as well as the ROE (TTM) of these indices, are presented in the report [43]. The profitability of Shenwan primary industry indices, including the year - on - year growth rate of net profit attributable to shareholders and ROE (TTM), is also provided [44]. 3.5 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Policy Driven - Recent Macro - Policy Trends: A series of policies have been introduced, including setting economic growth targets, fiscal policies such as deficit ratios, special bond issuance, and measures to expand domestic demand. In the real estate sector, policies aim to maintain stability and adjust housing purchase restrictions. In the capital market, policies focus on improving the market mechanism and increasing support [48][49][50]. 3.6 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Overseas Factors - US Economic Data: In February, the US manufacturing PMI was 52.4%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from the previous value; the non - manufacturing PMI was 56.1%, a 2.3 - percentage - point increase from the previous value. The consumer confidence index in March was 55.5, a 1.1 increase from the previous value. The seasonally - adjusted unemployment rate in February was 4.4%, and the number of new non - farm payrolls was - 92,000. In January, the year - on - year increase in PCE was 2.83%, and the year - on - year increase in core PCE was 3.06%. The year - on - year increase in CPI was 2.4%, and the year - on - year increase in core CPI was 2.5% [61][63][68]. 3.7 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Valuation - Index Valuation: As of March 20, 2026, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 14, 11.4, 35.1, and 47.2 respectively, at the 77.7%, 77.3%, 76.7%, and 67% quantile levels since October 2014 [70].