股指或有所承压，国债或震荡运行

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core Views - Stock Index: Due to increased intensity between the US and Iran, decreased market liquidity and risk appetite, and the indication from the MACD indicator, the stock index is expected to face pressure and move in a range - bound and weak - oscillating manner [11]. - Treasury Bonds: Despite the continuous decline of risk assets, it has not stimulated the improvement of sentiment in the ultra - long end. The steepened yield curve may continue due to unfriendly fundamental factors and geopolitical factors. Treasury bonds are expected to oscillate [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Strategy Suggestions Stock Index Strategy - Trend Review: Most stocks fell, with nearly 4,800 stocks declining in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets [11]. - Core View: Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, along with relevant policies and economic data, may cause the stock index to face pressure. The MACD indicator shows a possible weak - oscillating trend for the market index [11]. - Strategy Outlook: Range - bound oscillation [11]. Treasury Bond Strategy - Trend Review: The main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures all declined [12]. - Core View: Institutions are more interested in the medium - short end, and the steepened curve may continue due to unfriendly fundamentals and geopolitical factors. The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may oscillate [12]. - Strategy Outlook: Oscillating operation [12]. Key Data Tracking PMI - In February 2026, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%. The decline was in line with seasonality, but there were also structural risks, such as a significant decline in external demand and an increasing risk of imported inflation [18]. CPI - In February 2026, the year - on - year CPI increased by 1.3%, and the month - on - month increase was 1.0%. The PPI year - on - year decline narrowed, and the month - on - month increase remained flat. After the Spring Festival, the CPI may face downward pressure, while the PPI may turn positive in March due to rising oil prices [20]. Import and Export - From January to February 2026, China's exports were $656.58 billion, imports were $442.96 billion, and the trade surplus was $213.62 billion. The high - growth of exports was mainly due to the upward cycle of global manufacturing and the "rush - to - export" effect [22]. Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to February, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment rebounded to 1.8%. Manufacturing investment, infrastructure investment, and real estate development investment all improved. The growth rate of manufacturing investment rebounded to 3.1%, and infrastructure investment (including electricity) rebounded to 11.4% [25]. Social Retail - From January to February, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales rebounded to 2.8%, exceeding market expectations. Necessary consumption and catering revenue performed well during the Spring Festival, while durable - goods consumption showed differentiation [27]. Social Financing - In February 2026, the new social financing was 2.4 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were 0.9 trillion yuan. The growth rate of social financing stock was 8.2% year - on - year, and M2 increased by 9.0% year - on - year. Social financing increased year - on - year, mainly supported by credit and non - standard financing. The social financing growth rate may face downward pressure but is expected to remain in an appropriate range [29].