有色金属基础周报：中东战争外溢，全球通胀预期增强有色金属整体延续调整走势-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Hold short positions when prices are high [2] - Aluminum: Allocate long positions at low levels [2] - Alumina: Conduct long trades [2] - Aluminum alloy: Allocate long positions at low levels [2] - Zinc: Close short positions at low prices [2] - Lead: Hold short positions moderately when prices are high [2] - Nickel: Go long at low prices [3] - Stainless steel: Go long at low prices [3] - Tin: Trade within the range [3] - Industrial silicon: Hold long positions moderately or wait and see at low prices [3] - Polysilicon: Wait and see [3] - Lithium carbonate: Wait and see [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - factors this week have an increasing reverse impact on copper prices. Copper prices break through the lower limit under pressure in the high - level range. Although there is support from domestic inventory reduction and the approaching consumption season, there are still downward risks due to factors such as geopolitical conflicts, inflation, and high inventory [2]. - Aluminum prices experience a high - level decline and overall wide - range fluctuations. The supply side has some disturbances, and the demand side is gradually entering the peak season, but is also affected by price fluctuations. It is recommended to wait for the market sentiment to stabilize before entering the market to arrange long positions [2]. - Zinc prices decline rapidly and then stabilize. The supply of zinc concentrate is tight, the demand recovery is slow, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. - Lead prices show a downward trend in oscillation. The inventory decreases, but the supply and demand sides are affected by price changes. It is advisable to hold short positions moderately when prices are high [2]. - Nickel prices are supported at the ore end but are restricted by macro factors. The inventory continues to accumulate, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [3]. - Tin prices are expected to continue wide - range fluctuations. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream consumption has a certain degree of recovery. It is recommended to trade within the range [3]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations. Polysilicon prices have fallen below the cost, and it is recommended to wait and see. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to continue to oscillate due to the increase in both supply and demand [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - In the week from March 16th to 22nd, important economic data were released. For example, China's real estate development investment from January to February decreased by 11.1% year - on - year, while fixed - asset investment increased by 1.8% year - on - year, and industrial added value increased by 6.3% year - on - year. The US PPI in February increased significantly, and the Fed kept the interest rate unchanged and raised the inflation and GDP growth expectations [11][13][15][16]. - In the week from March 23rd to 29th, some important economic data are expected to be released, including the eurozone's March comprehensive PMI preliminary value and the US March unemployment claims data [18]. 3.2 Copper - Price trend: The high - level range breaks through the lower limit and falls. The current global three - place inventory is as high as 1.45 million tons. Although the domestic downstream demand is recovering and the inventory is starting to decline, the overseas inventory continues to accumulate [2]. - Supply and demand: The tight pattern of ore continues, and the refined copper supply maintains year - on - year positive growth. However, there are many interference factors in the second - quarter output, and the supply side still has support. The downstream demand continues to recover, and there is still room for improvement [2]. 3.3 Aluminum - Price trend: High - level decline and overall wide - range fluctuations. The domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises' operating rate increases week - on - week, but the demand is also suppressed by price fluctuations [2]. - Supply and demand: The price of domestic bauxite is stable, and the export restriction measures of Guinea's bauxite are expected to be mild. The operating capacity of alumina decreases, and the inventory increases. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increases, but the production in some regions is affected by the situation in the Middle East [2]. 3.4 Zinc - Price trend: Rapid decline and then stabilization. The supply of zinc concentrate is tight, and the demand recovery is slow. The downstream galvanizing industry mainly consumes the pre - holiday inventory, and the terminal procurement demand is weak [2]. - Supply and demand: The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee is at a low level, and the import ore processing fee continues to decline. The zinc ingot social inventory decreases slightly, and the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory at low prices increases [2]. 3.5 Lead - Price trend: Oscillate downward. The inventory of LME and COMEX lead and the inventory of SHFE lead both decrease. The price of lead concentrate, lead ingot, and waste battery recycling price all decline, and the suppliers' reluctance to sell increases [2]. - Supply and demand: Affected by the situation in the Middle East and the change in the Fed's policy expectations, the lead price fluctuates sharply. It is necessary to pay attention to the changes in lead inventory and energy trends [2]. 3.6 Nickel - Price trend: After a decline, it rebounds. The ore end is supported, but the price increase is limited by macro factors. The inventory of refined nickel continues to accumulate, and the price of nickel iron is expected to be strong [3]. - Supply and demand: The supply of nickel ore is tight, the production of refined nickel in March increases significantly, the demand is average, and the production of MHP is blocked. The stainless steel production recovers, and the inventory decreases for three consecutive weeks [3]. 3.7 Tin - Price trend: Oscillate downward. The downstream replenishes inventory at low prices, and the price has support. The output of refined tin in February decreases, and the import of tin concentrate increases year - on - year [3]. - Supply and demand: The supply of tin concentrate is tight, the downstream semiconductor industry is expected to continue to recover, and the inventory is at a medium level. It is necessary to pay attention to the overseas raw material supply disturbances [3]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, and Lithium Carbonate - Industrial silicon: The weekly output increases slightly, the factory inventory decreases, and the three - port inventory increases. It is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations [3]. - Polysilicon: The weekly output increases slightly, and the factory inventory increases. The price has fallen below the cost, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - Lithium carbonate: The supply is expected to increase, and the price continues to oscillate. The production in some mines is affected, and the import is expected to increase. The demand in the industry chain is strong, and it is necessary to pay attention to the export ban in Zimbabwe and the disturbances at the Yichun mine end [3].