国债周报：债期各期限走势分化-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall trend of Treasury bond futures this week showed a pattern of oscillating decline, with the adjustment amplitude of long - term varieties greater than that of short - term ones. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures performed the weakest, hitting a new low for the year at one point. The trading logic in the financial market has shifted from the initial support of risk - aversion sentiment to concerns about imported inflation. The soaring oil price has strengthened the global "re - inflation" expectation, causing major central banks to turn cautious in their monetary policies. The market has postponed the expectation of the interest - rate cut time to after the second quarter. For the Chinese bond market, the core contradiction of the trading logic is that the long - term risk of geopolitical conflicts has pushed up international energy prices, which may be transmitted to the domestic market through PPI, improve corporate profitability, and start a positive cycle of "PPI recovery - corporate profit improvement - enhanced credit demand", thus continuously suppressing the bond market, especially the long - term varieties sensitive to interest rates. The central bank's reduction of repurchase operations and factors such as tax periods, new share subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange, and government bond payments have brought pressure on the capital side. Although the central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, the signal of support for the stock market may intensify the pressure on bond trends [4]. - China is expected to replicate its role during the epidemic, becoming the "stabilizer" of global production with its complete industrial chain. The domestic fundamentals are likely to have an independent cycle. In the short term, the bond market faces adjustment pressure due to external inflation and the marginal convergence of internal capital, especially the long - term bonds. In the medium term, it is expected to fluctuate within a range, and there is unlikely to be a trending unilateral market. For trading positions, it is advisable to adopt a band - trading strategy, entering and exiting quickly; for allocation positions, one can wait for the negative factors to subside and moderately participate during the adjustment [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints - This week, Treasury bond futures showed an oscillating decline, with long - term varieties adjusting more than short - term ones. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures were the weakest. The trading logic in the financial market has shifted to concerns about imported inflation. The soaring oil price has strengthened the "re - inflation" expectation, and major central banks have maintained interest rates. The market has postponed the expectation of interest - rate cuts. For the Chinese bond market, geopolitical conflicts may push up energy prices, which may be transmitted through PPI, affecting bond prices. The central bank's reduction of repurchase operations and other factors have pressured the capital side, but the central bank will continue a moderately loose monetary policy. The signal of support for the stock market may increase bond pressure [4]. - China is expected to become the global production "stabilizer", and the domestic fundamentals may have an independent cycle. The bond market faces short - term adjustment pressure, especially for long - term bonds. In the medium term, it will likely oscillate within a range. Trading positions should use a band - trading strategy, and allocation positions can wait for negative factors to subside [6]. 3.2 Liquidity Tracking - Multiple charts are presented to show various aspects of liquidity, including open - market operations (currency投放, currency回笼, and net currency投放), medium - term lending facility (amount and price), reverse repurchase rates, inter - bank bond repurchase rates, deposit - type pledge - style repurchase rates, Shanghai Stock Exchange pledge - style repurchase rates, and loan market quotation rates, etc. [10][11][13] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - Charts are provided to show the basis, net basis, implied repo rate (IRR), and implied interest rate of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures [48][58][67][75]